“一带一路”国家能源投资的风险识别与传导——基于复杂网络方法  

Energy Investment Risk Identification and Transmission in the Belt and Road Initiative:Based on Complex Network Theory

作　　者：刘倩[1] 王莹莹[2,3] LIU Qian;WANG Yingying(Belt and Road School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Interdisciplinary Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学一带一路学院,北京100875 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学交叉科学研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期53-62,共10页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目:共建“一带一路”国家投资风险识别与传导机制研究(23YJCZH134);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目:中国海外投资风险管理——基于复杂网络的视角(GD24CYJ02)。

摘　　要：基于复杂网络理论,构建了能源投资风险指标体系,建立了风险识别模型,并通过103个共建“一带一路”国家2010-2019年数据实证分析了中国能源行业对外直接投资风险演变特征、趋势及时空传导路径。研究结果表明:腐败控制、政府效率、监管质量、法律规则以及社会稳定等指标是中国能源产业海外投资的关键风险点;十年间中国能源对外直接投资风险传导性不断增强,从单一国家的投资风险看,印度尼西亚、土耳其、巴西内部的投资风险环境更为复杂;基于最小生成树(MST)的风险传导路径长度表明,投资风险在欧洲中亚、中东北非以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的传导路径变短,联系日益紧密,风险加速积聚。This paper constructs an energy investment risk index system and risk identification model based on Complex Network Theory and empirically analyzes the risk evolution characteristics,trends and spatio-temporal transmission path of the overseas investment in China’s energy industry through the data of 103 countries from 2010 to 2019.Key findings include:(1)Indicators such as control of corruption,government effectiveness,regulatory quality,rule of law,political stability and absence of violence/terrorism are the key risk points of China’s energy industry overseas investments;(2)The transmissibility of China’s energy OFDI continues to increase over the past ten years.Examining individual country investment risks reveals Indonesia,Turkey and Brazil showcase internally complex investment risk environments.(3)Based on the minimum spanning tree,investment risks in Europe and Central Asia,Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa have shorter transmission paths,increasingly close links and accelerated risk accumulation.

关 键 词：一带一路 复杂网络 能源投资 风险识别 风险传导 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F416.2