中国产业转移的战略考量:特征、动因与政策展望  

Strategic Considerations of Industry Shift in China:Characterisation,Motivation and Policy Outlook

作　　者：洪俊杰 陈洋 杨志浩 HONG Junjie;CHEN Yang;YANG Zhihao(Shandong University of Finance and Economics;University of International Business and Economics;Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [3]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易》2024年第7期11-21,共11页Intertrade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“绿色壁垒风险对贸易的影响、机制与应对策略”(72341019);中国社会科学院“青启”计划资助项目“中外合资网络对我国供应链韧性的影响研究”(2024QQJH106)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：全球产业链格局正在加速重塑,全球经贸格局或将经历剧变,新一轮国际产业转移已经到来。中国作为第五次国际产业转移核心参与者,在这一进程中呈现加工制造环节加速外迁、跨国资本流动朝资本流出方向集中、国内产业转移承接的空间不饱和以及新兴产业尚未成为产业发展的“中坚力量”等典型特征。文章在深入剖析不确定性风险、跨国企业主动国际化布局、国内需求不足、国内市场竞争激烈以及技术变革驱动等影响中国产业外迁的重要因素基础上,为加快发展新质生产力背景下如何应对我国产业过早过快跨国转移的风险提出相应的政策建议。The global industrial chain pattern is accelerating reshaping,the global economic and trade pattern may undergo drastic changes,and a new round of international industrial transfer has arrived.As a core participant of the fifth international industrial transfer,China has shown typical features in this process,such as accelerated outward relocation of processing and manufacturing links,concentration of transnational capital flows in the direction of capital outflow,unsaturated space for domestic industries to take over,and emerging industries have not yet become the“backbone”of industrial development.On the basis of in-depth analysis of uncertainty risk,active international layout of multinational enterprises,insufficient domestic demand,fierce competition in the domestic market,and technological change,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to cope with the risk of premature and rapid transnational transfer of China's industries in the context of accelerating the development of new quality productivity.

关 键 词：中国产业转移 转移动因 回流和外迁 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]