2023-2024年全球煤炭市场研究与趋势分析  

Research and development trend analysis of global coal market from 2023 to 2024

作　　者：刘原奇 LIU Yuanqi(Materials and Equipment Department of China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation,Chaoyang,Beijing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化股份有限公司物资装备部,北京市朝阳区100021

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2024年第7期164-169,共6页China Coal

摘　　要：对2023-2024年全球煤炭相关经济体的煤炭消费、产量、贸易总体情况进行了综合评述和趋势分析;分析认为,2024年全球煤炭需求将保持在84.68亿t左右,同比略减约0.8%;2024年全球煤炭产量将同比下降约1.3%,至86.27亿t左右;2024年全球煤炭贸易量将维持在14.7亿t左右。2024年,除中国外,几个主要经济体的相关分析如下:印度煤炭消费量增速将继续保持在8.5%左右,2024-2025财年煤炭产量目标为10.82亿t,煤炭进口量增加至约2.77亿t;美国煤炭消费量将在3.3亿t左右,产量将下降至约4.72亿t;欧盟地区煤炭消费将下降至约3.27亿t,同比降幅明显放缓至7.7%左右;俄罗斯煤炭消费量总量将在2.65亿t左右,煤炭产量总量约4.24亿t;澳大利亚煤炭产量总量将增至约5.43亿t,煤炭出口量将增加至4亿t左右;印度尼西亚设定2024年煤炭产量目标为7.1亿t,煤炭出口量将降至约4.81亿t。A comprehensive review and trend analysis were conducted on the overall coal consumption,production,and trade situation of global coal related economies from 2023 to 2024.The analysis suggests that global coal demand will remain around 8.468 billion tons in 2024,with a slight year-on-year decrease of around 0.8%;global coal production will decrease by about 1.3%in 2024,to around 8.627 billion tons;the global coal trade volume will remain around 1.47 billion tons in 2024.Apart from China,the relevant analysis of several major countries in 2024 is as follows:India's coal consumption growth rate will continue to maintain at around 8.5%,the coal production target for 2024-2025 fiscal year is 1.082 billion tons,and coal imports will increase to around 277 million tons;the coal consumption in the United States will be around 330 million tons,and coal production will decrease to around 472 million tons;the coal consumption in the EU region will decrease to around 327 million tons,with a significant year-on-year decrease to around 7.7%;the total coal consumption in Russia will be around 265 million tons,and the total coal production will be around 424 million tons;the total coal production in Australia will increase to around 543 million tons,and coal exports will increase to around 400 million tons;Indonesia has set a coal production target of 710 million tons for 2024,and coal exports will decrease to around 481 million tons.

关 键 词：全球主要经济体 煤炭消费 煤炭供给 煤炭市场 煤炭贸易 趋势分析 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]