基于DSGE模型的科技信贷激励政策研究  

Research on Credit Policies of Sci-technology based on DSGE model

作　　者：王慧[1] 王子晗 刘微[1] WANG Hui;WANG Zi-han;LIU Wei(School of Business,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100025,China)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学商务学院,北京100025

出　　处：《经济问题》2024年第8期85-94,共10页On Economic Problems

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学基金项目“北京市高技术产业链韧性提升与金融支持研究”(21JJC036);北京市国际金融学会研究课题“北京自贸区金融创新对跨境人民币结算影响研究”(BIFSZD202301)。

摘　　要：通过构建基于全要素生产率厂商异质性的NK-DSGE(新凯恩斯—动态随机一般均衡)模型,模拟科技信贷激励政策的传导机制与政策效果,研究发现政策效果从大到小依次是常规货币政策、政府部门贴息、中央银行再贷款利率、中央银行定向降准、中央银行再贷款抵押率,与我国科技信贷激励政策的实践效果相吻合。进一步研究发现,政府贴息、再贷款利率的外生冲击波动幅度对政策效果影响弹性更大。建议地方政府应和银行加强联动,完善科技信贷风险补偿机制、贷款担保体系;另外,中国人民人行应加强常规货币政策实施精准性,并探索更加灵活的结构型货币政策机制。This paper constructs an NK-DSGE model based on the heterogeneity of TFP,and simulates the transmission mechanism and policy effects of sci-technology credit incentive policies.The study found that the effects of policies are in descending order:conventional monetary policy,government discount interest rate,central bank refinancing interest rate,central bank targeted reserve requirement reduction,and central bank refinancing mortgage rate.This research was in line with the practical effectiveness of China’s Sci-Technology credit policies,and further research showed that the fluctuation range of exogenous shocks in government discount and refinancing interest rates has a greater impact on the policy effectiveness.We suggest that local governments and banks to strengthen linkage and improve the technology credit risk compensation mechanism and loan guarantee system.And the central bank should strengthen the precision of implementing conventional monetary policies and explore more flexible structural monetary policy mechanisms.

关 键 词：科技信贷政策 动态随机一般均衡模型 全要素生产率 厂商异质性 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]