基于综合干旱指数的伊犁河流域干旱多变量概率特征研究  

Drought multivariable probability characteristics in the Yili River Basin based on comprehensive drought index

作　　者：李子龙 穆振侠[1,2] LI Zilong;MU Zhenxia(College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2024年第4期249-261,共13页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52269007,51969029);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2022B03024-4);新疆维吾尔自治区天山英才计划第三期;新疆农业大学研究生科研创新项目(XJAUGRI2023028)。

摘　　要：基于D-Vine-Copula函数,联合降水和VIC模型模拟的蒸散发、径流和土壤水等要素,构建了一种能表征气象-水文-农业干旱特征的新型综合干旱指数SWCI,以伊犁河流域为研究区,分析干旱多属性概率特征及其空间分布规律,以期为干旱区划及旱灾风险评估提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)构建的SWCI指数能很好地捕捉到不同类型干旱特征,具有较好的适用性;(2)1960—2010年,伊犁河谷东部共经历了43次干旱事件,干旱发生频率较高但程度较轻;河谷西部和南部山区分别发生干旱事件38、39次,干旱频率较河谷东部低但旱情偏重;(3)各区域多维干旱联合概率与干旱历时、烈度、峰值呈负相关关系,表明干旱历时、烈度和峰值越大,综合干旱发生的概率越小;(4)从二元条件概率可知,干旱历时(干旱烈度)的条件概率随干旱烈度(干旱历时)的增加而增大,但当干旱烈度(干旱历时)为某一固定值时,随着干旱历时(干旱烈度)逐渐增加,干旱烈度(干旱历时)的条件概率逐渐减小。(5)研究区的干旱高风险区主要集中在河谷西部和南部山区,其他区域为低风险区。Based on the D-Vine-Copula function,a new comprehensive drought index SWCI which can illustrate the characteristics of meteorological-hydrological-agricultural drought was constructed by combining precipitation and evapotranspiration,runoff and soil water simulated by VIC model.The multi-attribute probability characteristics and spatial distribution of drought in Yili River Basin were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for drought zoning and drought risk assessment.The results showed that:(1)The constructed SWCI index captured different types of drought characteristics well and has good applicability.(2)From 1960 to 2010,there were 43 drought events in the eastern valley,with a high frequency but a light degree of drought.There were 38 and 39 drought events in the western valley and southern mountains,respectively.The frequency of drought was lower than that of the eastern valley,but the drought was severe.(3)The joint probability of multi-dimensional drought in each region was negatively correlated with drought duration,intensity and peak value,indicating that the greater the duration,intensity and peak value of drought,the smaller the probability of comprehensive drought.(4)From the binary conditional probability,the conditional probability of drought duration(drought intensity)increased with the increase of drought intensity(drought duration),but the probability of drought intensity(drought duration)decreased with the increase of drought duration(drought duration)when drought intensity(drougth duration)was a fixed value.(5)The high drought risk areas were mainly concentrated in the western valley and southern mountains while the other areas were low risk.

关 键 词：综合干旱指数 D-Vine-Copula函数 联合概率 空间分布 伊犁河流域 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]