艾比湖流域LUCC驱动的碳储量时空动态特征与多情景预测  

Spatio Temporal Dynamics Characteristic and Multi Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage Driven by LUCC in Ebinur Lake Basin

作　　者：布威阿依谢姆·吐合提 阿布都热合曼·哈力克 姚凯旋 魏倩倩 姚磊 唐华 罗健梅 段越帆 BUWEIAYXIEMU·Tuheti;ABUDUREHEMAN·Halike;YAO Kaixuan;WEI Qianqian;YAO Lei;TANG Hua;LUO Jianmei;DUAN Yuefan(College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China;Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆大学绿洲生态学新疆重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [3]新疆大学智慧城市与环境建模重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期501-513,共13页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42161049,41761019,41061052)。

摘　　要：运用一个集成GMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型的框架,动态分析艾比湖流域土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)和碳储量的变化,并提供2030年3种可代替发展方案:自然发展情景(情形S1)、经济快速发展情景(情形S2)、经济和生态平衡发展情景(情形S3)。研究结果表明:1990-2020年间,耕地、建设用地和草地增加,林地、未利用地和水体则减少;在LUCC驱动下,过去30年间,总碳储量呈“增-减-增-减”的交替波动状态,整体增加了9.79×10^(6) t;与延续历史发展和经济快速发展相比,情景S3碳储量及其经济价值最为缓减,因为该情景对区域森林和草地资源的干扰有最大限制。A framework of the integrated GMOP PLUS InVEST model is used to dynamically analyze the land use/land cover change(LUCC)and carbon stock change in the Ebinur Lake Basin,and three alternative development plans in 2030 are provided:the scenario of natural development(scenario S1),the scenario of rapid economic development(scenario S2),and the scenario of economic and ecological balanced development(scenario S3).The research results show,between 1990 and 2020,the cultivated land,construction land and grassland increase,while wood land,unused land and water bodies decrease.Driven by LUCC,the total carbon storage has shown an alternating fluctuation state of“increase decrease increase decrease”with a total increase of 9.79×10^(6) t in the past 30 years.Compared with the continuation of historical development and rapid economic growth,the carbon storage and its economic value of scenario S3 present the most gradual reduction because the disturbance of the regional forest and grassland resources in this scenario is most limited.

关 键 词：碳储量 耦合模型 土地利用/土地覆被变化 情景模拟 艾比湖流域 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]