中国市域新质生产力:时序演变、组群特征与发展策略  

New Quality Productive Forces in China's Prefecture-level Cities:Chronological Evolution,Group Characteristics and Development Strategies

作　　者：傅联英[1] 蔡煜 LIANYING FU;YU CAI(Huaqiao University)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2024年第4期5-22,共18页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字正义视角下算法价格歧视的福利损益及向善治理研究”(批准号:22AJY016)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：新质生产力代表了新一轮产业变革与科技革命的前进方向,是重塑全球竞争新优势的关键着力点。本文构建了新质生产力测量体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法测度中国270座城市的新质生产力发展水平,并借助Dagum基尼系数分解法、Kernel密度估计、自然断裂法、Moran’s I指数与障碍因子诊断模型对市域新质生产力的时序演进和空间分化进行组群分析。结果发现:(1)中国市域新质生产力发展水平总体呈现上升态势但水平有待提高,层级分布上呈现头部较少、腰部相当、尾部堆积的“金字塔”形态。(2)时序上,新质生产力发展水平的总体差距随时间演进呈现扩大化迹象,总体差距主要来源于地区间差异;空间上,新质生产力发展表现出正向空间集聚特征。(3)产教融合水平、高新技术企业数量、城市创新指数是制约市域新质生产力发展的主要障碍因子。研究结论丰富了新质生产力的特征维度和时空分异事实,为因地制宜发展新质生产力提供了主攻方向和经验证据。New quality productive forces represent the direction of the new round of industrial change and scientific and technological revolution,and is the key focus point for reshaping the new advantages of global competition.By constructing a new quality productive forces measurement system,the entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to measure the development level of new productive forces in 270 cities in China,and the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,the Kernel density estimation,the natural break method,the Moran’s I index and the obstacle factor diagnostic model are used to analyze the temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of the new quality productive forces of the cities in the cluster analysis.The results show that:(1)The development level of new productive forces in Chinese cities generally shows an upward trend but the level needs to be improved,and the distribution of the layers shows a"pyramid"pattern with fewer heads,a comparable waist,and a pile up at the tail.(2)Chronologically,the overall gap in the development level of new quality productive forces shows signs of widening with the evolution of time,and the overall gap mainly comes from inter-regional differences;Spatially,the development of new quality productive forces shows positive spatial agglomeration characteristics.(3)The level of integration of industry and education,the number of high-tech enterprises,and the urban innovation index are the main obstacle factors restricting the development of new quality productive forces in cities.The conclusions of the study enriched the characteristic dimensions and spatial and temporal differentiation facts of the new quality productive forces,and provided the main direction and empirical evidence for the development of the new quality productive forces according to the local conditions.

关 键 词：新质生产力 特征维度 时空分异 障碍因子 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]