Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models:Taking Bohai Bay as an example  

作　　者：Fu Wang Xue-zheng Liu Yong Li Heng Yu Ming-zheng Wen Yun-zhuang Hu 

机构地区：[1]Tianjin Center(North China Center of Geoscience Innovation),China Geological Survey,Tianjin 300170,China [2]Key Laboratory of Coast Geo-Environment,China Geological Survey,Tianjin 300170,China [3]Tianjin Key Laboratory of Coast Geological Processes and Environmental Safety,Tianjin 300170,China [4]Hebei University of Environmental Engineering,Qinhuangdao 066102,China [5]Hebei Engineering Research Center for Ecological Restoration of seaward Rivers and Coastal Waters,Qinhuangdao 066102,China [6]Department of Earth and Environment,Boston University,Boston 02215,USA

出　　处：《China Geology》2024年第3期494-504,共11页中国地质（英文）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42293261);projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20230091,DD20189506,DD20211301);the 2024 Qinhuangdao City level Science and Technology Plan Self-Financing Project(Research on data processing methods for wave buoys in nearshore waters);the project of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering(GCZ202301)。

摘　　要：The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

关 键 词：Storm surge ROMS Elevation-Area method Numerical simulation Land subsidence Flooding disaster Sea level rise Marine geological survey engineering Geological disaster survey engineering Bohai Bay 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]