“双碳”背景下气候情绪对四川矿产行业影响路径及风险研究  

Research on the Impact Path and Risk of Climate Sentiment on the Mineral Industry in Sichuan Province under the Background of“Double Carbon”

作　　者：刘文文[1] 汤苗苗 赵鹏 Liu Wenwen;Tang Miaomiao;Zhao peng(School of Economics,Xihua University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610039,China)

机构地区：[1]西华大学经济学院,四川成都610039

出　　处：《西部经济管理论坛》2024年第4期67-75,共9页West Forum on Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化背景下金融市场联动机制、风险传染效应及预警研究”(72203173);成都绿色低碳发展研究基地基金项目“成都市数字经济发展与绿色低碳转型的关联性研究”(LD2024Z31);四川矿产资源研究中心基金项目“‘双碳’背景下气候风险对四川矿产行业影响路径及风险预警研究”(SCKCZY2023-ZC003)。

摘　　要：本文以“双碳”为背景,研究气候风险对四川省矿产上市公司的影响。首先,本文以2014—2022年东方财富网络数据为样本,采用朴素贝叶斯模型构建气候情绪指数。其次,采用多元模型进一步研究气候情绪对四川省上市矿产公司总资产报酬率的影响。实证结果表明:本文构建的气候情绪指数与四川矿产上市公司的总资产报酬率存在显著正向关系;气候风险对不同公司类型影响不同,气候情绪对大规模矿产公司的总资产报酬率有显著的促进作用,而对小规模矿产公司总资产报酬率不存在显著影响。因此,为了更好地应对气候变化风险,矿业企业应积极实施低碳战略,主动披露排放信息,提高品牌价值,为长期发展创造新的竞争优势。This paper investigates the impact of climate risk on listed mineral companies in Sichuan Province against the backdrop of the“Double Carbon”goal.Firstly,utilizing data from 2014 to 2022 obtained from the East Money Network and constructing a climate sentiment index with the Naive Bayes model.Subsequently,a multiple regression model is employed to further examine the influence of climate sentiment on the return on total assets of the listed mineral companies in Sichuan.The empirical results indicate that the climate sentiment index constructed in this paper has a significant positive relationship with the return on total assets of Sichuan’s mining listed companies.Climate risk affects different types of companies differently,significantly enhancing the return on total assets for large-scale mineral companies,while showing no significant impact on small-scale mineral companies.Therefore,in order to better manage the risks associated with climate change,mining companies should actively implement low-carbon strategies,proactively disclose emission information,and enhance brand value to create new competitive advantages for long-term development.

关 键 词：双碳 气候风险 气候情绪 朴素贝叶斯 总资产报酬率 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]