基于改进灰色预测模型的港口物流需求预测研究——以上海港为例  

Research on the Prediction of Port Logistics Demand Based on the Improved Grey Prediction Model——A Case Study of Port of Shanghai

作　　者：柳德才[1] 张世林 LIU Decai;ZHANG Shilin(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430065,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430065

出　　处：《物流科技》2024年第15期75-79,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：随着疫情防控政策的调整,我国外贸行业呈现快速增长态势。文章基于改进的灰色预测NGMG 1,(N)模型,运用MATLAB软件,以上海港2013至2022年的集装箱吞吐量为原始数据,预测未来五年上海港的集装箱吞吐量,并对改进的灰色NGMG 1,(N)模型预测结果进行精度检验,结果显示该模型预测精度较高。最后基于预测结果,分析上海港未来五年物流需求趋势向好的主要原因并得出结论。With the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies,China's foreign trade industry has shown a rapid growth trend.Based on the improved grey prediction NGMG1,N model,this paper uses MATLAB software to predict the container throughput of port of Shanghai in the next five years with the container throughput of Port of Shanghai from 2013 to 2022 as the original data,and tests the accuracy of the results of the improved grey prediction NGMG1,N model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is high.Finally,based on the forecast results,the paper analyzes the main reasons for the logistics demand trend of Port of Shanghai to be better in the next five years and draws a conclusion.

关 键 词：灰色预测 NGMG 1 (N)模型 港口物流 需求预测 

分 类 号：U691[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]