黄星蓟在我国的适生性分析及风险评估  

Adaptability analysis and risk assessment of Centaurea solstitialis in China

作　　者：袁淑珍 龙阳 李凯兵 徐晗[4] 虞赟 袁俊杰 YUAN Shuzhen;LONG Yang;LI Kaibing;XU Han;YU Yun;YUAN Junjie(Erlian Customs Technology Center,Erlianhaote,Neimenggu 012600,China;Zhanjiang Customs Technology Center,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524000,China;Foshan Customs,Foshan,Guangdong 528000,China;Chinese Academyof Inspection and Quarantine,Beijing 100000,China;Fuzhou Customs Technology Center,Fuzhou,Fujian 350003)

机构地区：[1]二连海关技术中心,内蒙古二连浩特012600 [2]湛江海关技术中心,广东湛江524000 [3]佛山海关,广东佛山528000 [4]中国检验检疫科学研究院,北京100000 [5]福州海关技术中心,福建福州350003

出　　处：《生物安全学报（中英文）》2024年第3期285-290,共6页Journal of biosafety

基　　金：海关总署科研项目(2022HK120)。

摘　　要：【目的】黄星蓟是一种极具危险性的杂草,在美国和澳大利亚等地区被列为有毒有害杂草并加以控制。目前在我国新疆等局部区域,已发现有黄星蓟的定殖,且呈蔓延危害加剧的趋势。对黄星蓟进行适生性分析及风险评估,可为该有害生物的预警防控提供理论依据。【方法】利用MaxEnt模型对黄星蓟在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并采用多指标赋值运算,对其入侵的风险进行定量分析。【结果】黄星蓟在我国的潜在适生区达32.96%,其中高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区的面积分别为11.21万、34.16万、272.28万km^(2)。其危险性综合评估风险值R为2.01,为高度危险。【结论】我国很多区域均属于黄星蓟的适生区,需要高度重视,其预测结果为建立黄星蓟长效预警与防控机制提供必要的理论基础。【Aim】Centaurea solstitialis L.is a very dangerous weed that is classified and controlled as a noxious weed in areas such as the United States and Australia.At present,the colonization of C.solstitialis has been found in Xinjiang which shows a tendency to spread.The purpose of this study is to provide theoretical basis for early warning and control by Adaptability analysis and risk assessment of C.solstitialis in China.【Method】MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of C.solstitialis in China,and multi-index assignment was used to to conduct quantitative analysis for the risk of invasion.【Result】The potential habitat area of C.solstitialis in China reached 32.96%,of which the areas of high,medium and low habitat were 11.21×10^(4) km^(2),34.16×10^(4) km^(2) and 272.28×10^(4) km^(2),respectively.The comprehensive risk assessment value of this weed was 2.01,belongs to highly dangerous.【Conclusion】C.solstitialis could occur at many areas of our country.The results provide the necessary theoretical basis for establishing a long-term early warning and control mechanism of C.solstitialis.

关 键 词：黄星蓟 潜在适生区 MAXENT 风险评估 

分 类 号：S451[农业科学—植物保护]