一种基于双重检验逐步回归的台风生成预报方法  

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasting Method Based onDouble Test Stepwise Regression

作　　者：董林 吕心艳 高拴柱 王皘 DONG Lin;LYU Xinyan;GAO Shuanzhu;WANG Qian(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2024年第7期835-846,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3107902);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J015);国家自然科学基金项目(42175016)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于CMA台风最佳路径和ECMWF细网格确定性数值模式资料,计算西北太平洋和南海台风生成期间16种环境因子的值,选出7个显著性因子,采用双重检验逐步回归方法建立台风生成预报方程。独立样本检验结果表明,利用回归方法预报的风速值作为台风生成判据,较直接使用模式预报的风速和气压作为台风生成判据的击中率更高。双重检验逐步回归的台风生成预报方法在2022年的台风预报业务中进行了试用,对2203号台风暹芭的生成预报检验结果显示,回归方法表现较好,可为预报员判别台风是否生成及生成时间提供参考。Based on CMA best-track and ECMWF fine grid data, 16 environmental variables during TC genesis are calculatedand 7 prediction factors with significance are selected. The stepwise regression algorithm based on double test wasused in establishing the TC genesis forecasting equation. The independent sample test results show that the hit rateof the wind speed predicted by the regression method is higher than that of the wind speed and pressure predicted bythe numerical model. In 2022, the stepwise regression algorithm based on double test was trialed in the TC genesisforecasting operation. The test results of generating forecast for Typhoon Chaba showed that the regression methodhas a good performance, and it can provide a reference for forecasters to judge whether and when the typhoon isgenerated.

关 键 词：台风生成 逐步回归 双重检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]