基于加密观测的重庆暴雨预警等级标准确定  

Determination of Chongqing Rainstorm Warning Level StandardsBased on High-Density Automatic Observation

作　　者：王颖 翟丹华 廖要明[4] 康俊 杨宝钢[1,2] WANG Ying;ZHAI Danhua;LIAO Yaoming;KANG Jun;YANG Baogang(CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy,Chongqing 401147;Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147;Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147;National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆401147 [2]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [3]重庆市气象台,重庆401147 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2024年第7期868-876,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：科技创新2030-“新一代人工智能”重大项目(2022ZD0119502);重庆市气象局业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202129、YWJSGG-202205)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于重庆市2011—2021年2066个加密观测自动气象站小时雨量和暴雨灾情数据,利用暴雨过程滑动抽样和百分位法确定区县暴雨预警信号发布标准及全市暴雨灾害风险预警等级标准,为重庆地方部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。结果表明:重庆设气象主管机构的34个区县累计发生5363次暴雨过程,平均每个区县每年出现14.3次,选取1、3、12 h作为暴雨过程预警信号发布参考历时;各历时雨量升序排列后按照30%~50%、70%~80%、90%~95%、99%~99.9%百分位区间取整,得到暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警等级阈值分别是:1 h-30-50-70-100 mm,3 h-50-70-100-150 mm,12 h-70-100-150-250 mm;区县不同预警信号的致灾概率随信号增强、历时增加而增大,综合各历时最高预警等级和最大致灾概率,各区县平均每年发布暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警5.4、4.0、1.3、0.18次,致灾概率分别是30%、60%、85%、95%;全市累计出现114次区域暴雨过程,根据暴雨过程可能受灾区县个数发布暴雨灾害风险预警等级,平均每年发布Ⅳ级5.3次、Ⅲ级3.1次、Ⅱ级1.6次、Ⅰ级0.1次,与区县预警信号发布频次基本一致,符合预警发布规律。Based on the hourly rainfall data of 2066 automatic weather stations and rainstorm disaster information in Chongqing from 2011 to 2021,the rainstorm process slide sampling and percentile method are used to determine the rainstorm warning signal standards for counties and the disaster risk warning grades for the whole city,which is expected to provide some references for Chongqing local departments to initiate rainstorm emergency response.The main conclusions are as follows.A total of 5363 rainstorm processes occurred in 34 counties with meteorological services in Chongqing,with an average of 14.3 times per year in each county.The time lengths of 1,3 and 12 h are selected as the reference durations for issuing rainstorm process warning signals. Rainstorm warning signal (blue, yellow, orange, and red) standard thresholds ofdifferent durations are obtained by sorting the rainfall data in ascending order to the nearest value within the30%-50%, 70%-80%, 90%-95%, and 99%-99.9% percentile ranges, and they are 1 h-30-50-70-100 mm, 3 h-50-70-100-150 mm and 12 h-70-100-150-250 mm. The probability of disaster indicated by different warning signalsincreases with signal level and duration. Warning signals of blue, yellow, orange and red for each county have anaverage of 5.4, 4.0, 1.3 and 0.18 times per year according to the highest warning level of different durations, and thedisaster probability of different warning signals are 30%, 60%, 85%, and 95% respectively. A total of 114 regionalrainstorm processes occurred in the whole city of Chongqing from 2011 to 2021, and rainstorm disaster risk warninglevels determined by the number of possible disaster counties have an average of 5.3 (Ⅳ), 3.1 (Ⅲ), 1.6 (Ⅱ) and 0.1(Ⅰ) times per year. This is basically consistent with the frequency of counties and conforms to the regularity ofwarning releases.

关 键 词：暴雨预警信号 暴雨过程滑动抽样法 百分位法 致灾概率 暴雨灾害预警 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456