人口老龄化、农业技术效率与农业经济韧性——基于人口普查与抽样调查数据的分析  

Population Aging,Agricultural Technical Efficiency and Agricultural Economic Resilience—Analysis based on Census and Sample Survey Data

作　　者：高玉婷 李波[1] 甘天琦 GAO Yuting;LI Bo;GAN Tianqi

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第8期115-127,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重大攻关项目“西部地区巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴战略衔接机制研究”(21JZD028);省部级科研机构重大招标课题“湖北省产业集群发展的韧性与提升对策”(PTZD22003);中南民族大学中央专项基金“经济集聚影响农业绿色发展的效应与机制研究”(PTS24012)。

摘　　要：农业是经济社会发展的“压舱石”,合理应对人口老龄化加剧带来的挑战对于锻铸农业经济韧性、推进农业现代化具有重要意义。本文采用人口普查、人口抽样调查数据,实证检验了人口老龄化加剧对农业经济韧性的影响。研究发现:人口老龄化水平提高显著降低了农业经济韧性,经过系列内生性与稳健性检验后结论不变,人口老龄化主要通过削弱农业创新重构能力降低农业经济韧性;机制研究表明,人口老龄化水平提高降低了农业技术效率进而抑制农业经济韧性提升;异质性分析发现,农业经济韧性遭受人口老龄化的冲击力度在所处粮食功能区划、农业保险水平以及财政支农力度不同的地区存在差异。据此,本文从提升农业劳动力素质、推动农业技术创新、鼓励区域差异化发展、完善农业保险保障和财政支农政策等方面提出对策建议,以期为当前研究提供经验借鉴。Agriculture is the“ballast stone”of economic and social development,and reasonable response to the challenges brought by aging is of great significance to forge the resilience of agricultural economy and promote agricultural modernization.Using population census and population sample survey data,this paper empirically examines the impact of population aging on the resilience of agricultural economy.The results show that:The improving of aging significantly reduces the resilience of agricultural economy,and the conclusion remains unchanged after a series of endogenous and robust tests.The deepening of aging mainly affects the resilience of agricultural economy by weakening the ability of agricultural innovation and reconstruction.The mechanism study shows that the improving of aging degree inhibits the improvement of agricultural economic resilience by reducing agricultural technical efficiency.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of aging on agricultural economic resilience was different in regions with different food function divisions,agricultural insurance levels and financial support to agriculture.Therefore,this paper puts forward countermeasure suggestions in terms of upgrading the quality of the agricultural labor force,promoting agricultural technological innovation,encouraging regional differentiated development,perfecting agricultural insurance protection and financial support policies for agriculture,with a view to providing experience for the current study.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 农业经济韧性 农业技术效率 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] C924.24[政治法律—中外政治制度] F323[社会学—人口学]