2002-2021年中国城乡居民尘肺病死亡率及其变化趋势  

Pneumoconiosis mortality and its trends among urban and rural residents,2002—2021

作　　者：常馨月 徐小诺 丁宁 何静 葛晓燕 崔凯 CHANG Xin-yue;XU Xiao-nuo;DING Ning;HE Jing;GE Xiao-yan;CUI Kai(School of Public Health,Jinzhou Medical University,Jinzhou,Liaoning 121000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]锦州医科大学公共卫生学院,辽宁锦州121000 [2]锦州医科大学医疗学院,辽宁锦州121000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第14期2541-2547,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：2022年辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研项目面上项目(LJKMZ20221237)。

摘　　要：目的分析2002-2021年中国居民尘肺病死亡率变化趋势、影响因素及其在城市与农村人口间的差异。方法采用国家统计局年鉴数据,通过Joinpoint模型分析中国城乡居民尘肺病粗死亡率及标化死亡率,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。通过年龄-时期-队列模型,分析三种效应对尘肺病死亡率变化的影响。结果城市标准化死亡率整体呈下降趋势(APC=-0.2%,P>0.05),农村2004-2021年呈上升趋势(APC=7.9%,P<0.001)。年龄效应显示城乡尘肺病死亡率均随年龄增高而增大。时期效应随时间增加,且在城乡间有不同表现,城市死亡风险呈下降趋势,农村死亡风险呈上升趋势。队列效应显示,城市居民出生越晚死亡风险越低,农村居民出生队列呈波动趋势。结论年龄、时期、队列效应的增加对农村尘肺病死亡率的影响高于城市。Objective To analyze the pneumoconiosis mortality change trend,influencing factors and differences between Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021.Methods Using the Joinpoint model of crude pneumoconiosis mortalityrate and standardized mortalityrate,the annual percentage change(APC)and mean annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.The effect of three effects on pneumoconiosis mortality changes was analyzed by the age-period-cohort model.Results The urban standardized mortality rate showed an overall downward trend(APC=-0.2%,P>0.05)and increased in rural areas from 2004 to 2021(APC=7.9%,P<0.001).The age effect showed that both urban and rural pneumoconiosis mortality rate increased with increasing age.The period effect increased with time,and it was different between urban and rural areas,with the risk of urban death decreasing,and the risk of rural death increasing.The cohort effect showed that the risk of death decreased with later birth,and the rural resident birth cohort showed a fluctuating trend.Conclusion The increasing effect of age,period and cohort will affect rural pneumoconiosis mortality more than in urban areas.

关 键 词：尘肺病 死亡率 年龄—时期—队列模型 

分 类 号：R135.2[医药卫生—劳动卫生]