基于主体建模方法在慢性病行为危险因素干预中的应用与研究进展  

Application and research progress of agent-based modeling methods in intervention of behavioral risk factors for chronic diseases

作　　者：杨启帆 段颖 方亚[1,2] 张良文 YANG Qi-fan;DUAN Ying;FANG Ya;ZHANG Liang-wen(Elderly Health Research Center of Public Health School,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian 361000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学公共卫生学院老年健康研究中心,福建厦门361000 [2]卫生技术评估福建省高校重点实验室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第14期2649-2654,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2022YFC3603000);南京大学中国医院改革发展研究院课题项目(NDYG2023034);福建省社会科学基金项目(FJ2022C047);福建省卫生健康政策创新研究课题(2024B03)。

摘　　要：近年来,基于主体建模(Agent-Based Modeling,ABM)作为“自下而上”的系统科学方法得到快速发展,与传统模型相比展现出更佳的描述能力和预测效果,在公共卫生领域得以广泛应用。当前,慢性非传染性疾病(Non-Communicable Diseases,NCDs)在世界范围内流行趋势日益严峻,针对行为危险因素的干预措施可有效预防慢性病的发生。然而,当前鲜有涉及健康行为变化的诱因以及干预对象异质性反馈的相关研究。如何利用ABM模型打开这一“黑匣子”,从而优化慢性病预防策略值得深入探讨。因此,本文在系统检索相关中英文献的基础上,梳理ABM方法在慢性病行为危险因素干预中的应用实例,总结建模过程中的方法学共性和内在逻辑,力图探索该方法的发展前景,为优化NCDs预防控制体系、推进“健康中国”建设提供循证依据。In recent years,Agent Based Modeling(ABM)has developed rapidly as a"bottom-up"system science method,which has better descriptive power and predictive performance compared to traditional models.It is also widely used in the field of public health.The trend of chronic non communicable diseases is severe worldwide,and interventions targeting behavioral risk factors can effectively prevent the occurrence of chronic diseases.However,there is relatively little research on the causes of health behavior changes and the heterogeneity feedback of intervention targets.It is worth exploring how to use ABM models to open this"black box"and optimize chronic disease prevention strategies.Based on a systematic search of relevant Chinese and English literature,this article summarizes the application examples of ABM method in the intervention of chronic disease behavioral risk factors,summarizes the methodological commonalities and internal logic in the modeling process,and strives to explore the development prospects of this method,providing evidence-based basis for optimizing the NCDs prevention and control system and promoting the construction of a healthy China.

关 键 词：慢性病 基于主体建模(ABM) 行为干预 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]