车尔臣河年径流量气候成因及径流机制趋势分析  

The Analysis of Climatic Factors and the Trend in the Runoff Mechanism of Annual Runoff in Cherchen River

作　　者：苏仁 SU Ren(Xinjiang Bayinguoleng Hydrographic Survey Bureau,Kuerle 841000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆巴音郭楞水文勘测局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《河南水利与南水北调》2024年第6期27-28,共2页Henan Water Resources & South-to-North Water Diversion

摘　　要：车尔臣河发源于昆仑山北麓,河源有海拔6 973 m的木孜塔格峰,山口以上集水面积2.47×10^(4)km^(2),山口以下且末县城处设有且末水文站。论文选用该站1957—2021年年径流量为分析对象,月、年降水量及平均气温为气候因子,用逐步回归分析技术在优选影响年径流量的主要气候因子基础上,分析了气候成因;并基于年径流量、主要气候因子的趋势函数,分析了径流机制变化趋势。结果显示,车尔臣河流域气候趋暖湿化(冬趋暖冬),径流机制呈以年径流量波动递增为主的变化趋势。The Cherchen River originates from the northern foot of the Kunlun Mountain,with its source at an elevation of 6,973 meters above sea level on the Muzitage Peak.The catchment area above the pass spans 24,700 km^(2).Qiemo Hydrological Station is situated downstream at Qiemo County below the mountain pass.The annual runoff of the station from 1957 to 2021 is selected as the analysis object,with monthly and annual precipitation as well as average temperature considered as the climatic factors.By optimizing the main climatic factors affecting the annual runoff,a stepwise regression analysis technique is employed to analyze the underlying climatic causes.Based on the trend function of annual runoff and main climatic factors,the variation trend of the runoff mechanism is analyzed.The results indicate that the climate in the Cherchen River Basin exhibits a tendency towards higher temperatures and increased moisture levels with winter experiencing relatively warmer conditions,while the runoff mechanism is mainly changing with increasing annual runoff fluctuation.

关 键 词：车尔臣河 年径流量 气候成因 径流机制趋势 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]