人口资源大国的服务化转型之路——来自中国“高校扩招”的理论分析与微观证据  

The Road to Servitization of a Country with Abundant Population Resources:Theory and Evidence from China’s“College Enrollment Expansion”

作　　者：袁凯华 包时鹏 吴腊梅 YUAN Kaihua;BAO Shipeng;WU Lamei(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学经济学院 [3]中南财经政法大学金融学院、数字技术与现代金融学科创新引智基地

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第8期26-48,共23页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJL026);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD042);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2722024BY004);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303244);中国博士后科学基金(2022M723543,2024T171053)的资助。

摘　　要：在外部环境日益严峻、服务化转型日渐紧迫的背景下,立足国内超大规模人口资源寻找中国服务型制造发展的内源动力,已经成为产业高质量发展不可回避的话题。本文立足“高校扩招”政策背景,借助一般均衡模型与倍差法,从理论和实证两方面系统分析了人力资本扩张对中国制造业企业服务化转型的经济效应。研究发现:人力资本扩张能够有效推动企业服务化转型,解释企业投入服务化接近26.8%的增幅。机制与异质性分析表明,人力资本可能通过提高中间服务投入比例、提升管理效率、改善雇佣结构、增强创新能力的方式推动企业服务化转型,并且企业在规模、融资约束、创新意愿或技术水平上的特征差异会使边际效应存在分化。拓展研究发现,人力资本扩张对国内和国外服务化均有促进作用,而且国内服务化能够加强供应链安全,国外服务化却产生截然相反的抑制效果。本文从人力资本视角挖掘人口资源大国服务化转型的内源动力,研究结论将为新发展格局下推动建设贸易强国与加强供应链安全提供切实参考。As the global economy continues to transform from an “industrial economy” to a “service-oriented economy”,more and more multinational manufacturing giants like General Motors,Philips and IBM have occupied a high-end position in the global value chain with the help of the transformation strategy of outsourcing assembly and processing and strengthening input servitization.In order to realize the transformation from a “manufacturing country” to a “manufacturing power”,the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized that it is necessary to accelerate the "promotion of the deep integration of modern service industry with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture.According to the theory of division in the value chain,when the service is used as an intermediate input,it can introduce the contained advanced elements such as knowledge,technology and information into the final product in the form of a flywheel,which is of key significance for China's manufacturing to secure its transformation and upgrading and its promotion of the status of in international division.Based on this,the existing literature emphasizes the importance of servitization transformation to industrial upgrading from multiple perspectives,such as export value climbing,product quality upgrading,technological advance and green transformation.The important question behind the above facts is that in the context of the increasingly complex external environment,the unsustainable development path of dependent industrial transformation,and the increasingly emerging advantages of super-large domestic population,how can China's manufacturing find its endogenous power for the servitization transformation? In order to cope with development problems,General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission the need to “strengthen the development and utilization of human resources”,“improve the efficiency of human resource utilization”,and suppor

关 键 词：制造业服务化 价值链 人力资本 高校扩招 倍差法 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]