上海市2012-2021年梅毒时空分布研究  

Spatiotemporal analysis of syphilis cases reported in ShangHai,2012-2021

作　　者：周磊明[1] 程华[1] 周鑫[1] 张泽彧 宁镇[1] ZHOU Leiming;CHENG Hua;ZHOU Xin;ZHANG Zeyu;NING Zhen(Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200336

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2024年第7期721-726,共6页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：上海市自然科学基金项目(21ZR1459900);上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2023-2025年)(GWVI-9),(GWVI-11.1-05)。

摘　　要：目的 了解上海市2012-2021年梅毒发病趋势及其时空分布特征,为完善上海市梅毒防控策略提供科学依据。方法 对上海市2012-2021年报告的梅毒病例资料,应用R语言进行全局和局部空间自相关分析,应用SaTScan软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 上海市梅毒报告发病率由2012年的57.15/10万下降到2021年的41.49/10万,年均下降3.37%。全局空间自相关分析发现,2012-2021年的全局自相关系数Moran指数均具有统计学意义,上海市梅毒病例报告发病率各年份均呈明显空间聚集性分布。局部空间自相关检验显示,2012-2021年高值聚集区域(热点区域)主要集中在市中心街道、靠近城市边缘的街镇。低值聚集区域(冷点区域)零散地分布在城市北部区域。时空聚集性分析发现,2012-2021年上海市梅毒发病有10个聚集时间段和18个热点区域。结论 上海市2012-2021年梅毒报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,梅毒的监测、预警、宣传教育和高危人群干预的工作重点应放在热点区域。Objective This study aims to understand the trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis incidence in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021,in order to provide scientific evidence for improving syphilis prevention and control strategies in this city.Methods Data on syphilis cases reported in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021 were analyzed using R language software for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Spatiotemporal scan analysis was conducted using SaTScan software.Results The reported syphilis incidence in Shanghai decreased from 57.15/100000 in 2012 to 41.49/100000 in 2021,with an average annual decrease of 3.37%.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed statistically significant Moran's I values for all years from 2012 to 2021,indicating a clear spatial clustering pattern in the distribution of syphilis cases in Shanghai.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified highhigh clusters(hot-spots)primarily located in the downtown and the urban marginal areas from 2012 to 2021,while the low-low clusters(cold-spots)were scattered in the northern regions of the city.Spatiotemporal cluster analysis identified 10 temporal clusters and 18 hot-spots of syphilis incidence in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021.Conclusions The overall syphilis incidence in Shanghai showed a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2021.The identified hot spots should be the focus of syphilis surveillance,early warning,education and intervention among high-risk populations.

关 键 词：梅毒 空间自相关 时空扫描 上海 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]