不确定条件下中国新能源汽车产业韧性测度与提升路径  

Study on the Resilience Evaluation and Improvement Path of China’s New Energy Automobile Industry under Uncertain Conditions

作　　者：范金 孙颖 张晓兰[3] Fan Jin;Sun Ying;Zhang Xiaolan

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [3]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2024年第7期38-52,共15页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“‘十四五’时期我国经济有效防范滞胀风险路径研究”(21&ZD081);国家社科基金一般项目“RCEP框架下中国重点产业链东亚重构研究”(22BGJ035)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前,受全球经济增速下滑、地缘政治冲突频发、国际贸易和金融风险增加等多重因素交叉影响,全球经济的不确定性明显上升,对我国产业发展韧性提出了更高的要求。我国以新能源汽车等为代表的“新三样”在这一背景下的异军突起,彰显了中国经济应对不确定性能力的增强。本文通过构建随机CGE模型,对中国新能源汽车产业的韧性程度进行了测度和模拟。结果发现:第一,中国汽车产业处于全球价值链相对下游环节且产业链相对安全,而新能源汽车产业呈现出更强韧性的关键在于把控关键核心技术;第二,农村汽车消费潜力更大,韧性潜力高于城镇居民消费市场;第三,宏观闭合检验显示提升新能源汽车产业韧性需综合政府与市场作用,政策模拟显示减免汽车购置税和价格补贴有助于提升国内汽车消费,而关税政策对汽车出口影响大。为此,应进一步巩固和加强新能源汽车技术创新与产业生态的引领作用,通过技术创新增强新能源汽车产业链韧性,通过政策引导深化跨领域融合创新,通过制度优势建立技术创新体系,同时,提升新能源汽车质量塑造国际知名品牌,深入拓展新能源汽车的国际交流合作等,不断增强中国新能源汽车的产业韧性。At present, under the cross-impact of multiple factors such as the decline in global economic growth, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and increased international trade and financial risks, the uncertainty of the global economy has risen significantly, putting forward higher requirements for the resilience of China's industrial development. The sudden emergence of China's “new three” represented by new energy vehicles in this context highlights the enhanced ability of China's economy to cope with uncertainties. This paper measures and simulates the resilience of China's new energy vehicle industry by constructing a stochastic CGE model. The results show that: First, China's automobile industry is in the lower reaches of the global value chain and the industrial chain is relatively safe, while the key to the new energy automobile industry showing stronger resilience is to control key core technologies;Second, the rural automobile consumption potential is greater, and the resilience potential is higher than that of the urban consumer market;Third, the macro closed test shows that to improve the resilience of the new energy automobile industry needs to integrate the role of the government and the market, and the policy simulation shows that the reduction and exemption of automobile purchase tax and price subsidies can help to improve domestic automobile consumption, while the tariff policy has a great impact on automobile exports. To this end, we should further consolidate and strengthen the leading role of technological innovation and industrial ecology of new energy vehicles, enhance the resilience of the new energy vehicle industry chain through technological innovation, deepen cross-field integration and innovation through policy guidance, and establish a technological innovation system through institutional advantages. At the same time, improve the quality of new energy vehicles to build internationally renowned brands. Further expand the international exchanges and cooperation of new energy vehicles, and c

关 键 词：新能源汽车 产业韧性 随机CGE模型 测度 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]