强震大尺度有序图像预测法及其应用研究  

Large-scale ordered image prediction method for strong earthquakes and its application

作　　者：杨立明 刘文邦[2] 李玮杰[2] YANG Liming;LIU Wenbang;LI Weijie(The Second Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,Xi'an 710054,Shanxi,China;Qinghai Earthquake Agency,Xining 810001,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局第二监测中心,陕西西安710054 [2]青海省地震局,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2024年第4期949-954,共6页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

摘　　要：在系统总结汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级等地震前大尺度有序图像演化过程的基础上,系统研究1952年以来青藏块体大尺度有序图像的特征及其与区域7级地震或地震组的关系,得出大尺度有序图像是一种具有动力学含义的地震活动图像,在青藏块体7级地震或地震组前普遍存在,对7级地震或地震组以及5级以上地震活动主体地区的判定具有中期预测意义,可进一步总结并提炼强震大尺度有序图像预测法。以2021年青海玛多7.4级地震前青藏块体5级以上地震大尺度有序图像的演化过程为例,检验和验证上述结论及大尺度有序图像预测法的有效性。The characteristics of large-scale ordered images of the Qinghai-Xizang block since 1952 and their relationship with regional earthquakes and seismic groups with magnitude 7 were systematically analyzed based on a systematic summary.The analysis was based on data gathered from the evolution process of large-scale ordered images before the Wenchuan M S8.0 and Yushu M S7.1 earthquakes.It was observed that the large-scale ordered image is a type of seismic activity image with a dynamic meaning,and it can often be seen before earthquakes or seismic groups with magnitudes of 7 in the Qinghai-Xizang block.This is of medium-term predictive significance for earthquakes or seismic groups with magnitude 7 and for determining a region with seismic activity of M≥5.By taking the evolution process of large-scale ordered images of M≥5 earthquakes in the Qinghai-Xizang block prior to the 2021 Maduo M S7.4 earthquake as an example,these conclusions were tested and verified along with the effectiveness of the large-scale ordered image prediction method.

关 键 词：大尺度有序图像预测法 玛多7.4级地震 有效性验证 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]