云南区域性暴雨过程时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial characteristics of regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province

作　　者：杨鹏武[1] 周德丽[2] 吉文娟[1] 马思源 罗蒙 李蒙[1] YANG Pengwu;ZHOU Deli;JI Wenjuan;MA Siyuan;LUO Meng;LI Meng(Yunnan Climate Center,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第3期83-90,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：云南省科技厅重点研发计划社会发展专项(202203AC100005);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201936)共同资助。

摘　　要：针对中国气象局发布的《区域性重要过程(暴雨)监测和评价业务规定》确定了云南本地化区域性暴雨过程识别阈值,经灾害数据检验客观有效。进一步应用气候趋势分析、M-K检验、小波分析、EOF分析及REOF分析等方法研究了1961—2022年云南区域性暴雨过程的时空分布特征。结果表明:云南历次区域性暴雨过程综合强度波动较大,年平均综合强度呈减小趋势,但不显著,月平均综合强度呈波动分布,峰值出现在1月,雨季各旬平均综合强度变化较小。云南区域性暴雨过程年均4次,1977年以后呈减少趋势,但不显著,没有明显突变点,2008—2022年过程频次有6~8 a周期,但不稳定,云南区域性暴雨过程夏季最多,冬季最少,6月中旬至8月下旬过程数约占全年近7成。云南区域性暴雨过程呈南多北少分布,北部边缘虽然频次较少,但过程降水强度较大。云南区域性暴雨过程呈现全省大部一致型、东北-西南反向型及南北反向型等5个主要模态,进一步可分为5个典型区,即南区、西区、中东部区、北区及西北区,过去62 a,南区、西区和中东部区波动较大,变化趋势不明显,北区平稳少变,西北区前期以偏少为主,后期增加明显。According to the"Regulations for Monitoring and Evaluation of Regional Important Processes(Rainstorm)"issued by China Meteorological Administration,the localization recognition threshold of regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province was determined,which is proved to be objective and effective by disaster data.Furthermore,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province from 1961 to 2022 were analysed by using the methods of climate trend analysis,Manner-Kendall test,wavelet,EOF and REOF.The results show that the comprehensive intensity of the regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province fluctuates greatly,and ist annual mean value shows an insignificant decreasing trend,and the monthly mean value fluctuates and the peak appears in January,and the ten-day mean value in rainy season changes little.The regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province occur four times a year on average,which shows a decreasing trend after 1977,but it is not significant,and there is no obvious abrupt change point from 1961 to 2022.The frequency of regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province shows an unstable period of 6~8 years from 2008 to 2022.The regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province are most frequent in summer and the least frequent in winter,accounting for nearly 70%of the annual rainstorm from mid-June to late August.The regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province are more in the south and less in the north,although the frequency is less in the northern margin,the process precipitation intensity is larger.The regional rainstorm processes in Yunnan province are characterized by five major climatic patterns,such as most of the same pattern,southwest and northeast reverse pattern and north and south reverse pattern etc.,and it can be further divided into five typical regions,namely,southern region,western region,central and eastern region,northern region and northwestern region.Over the past 62 years,the southern region,western region and central and e

关 键 词：区域性暴雨过程 EOF分析 REOF分析 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]