挂锚与造锚——从香港地区货币制度的演变传统看联系汇率制度的演变趋势  

Linking and Making Anchor Currency:Analysis of the Evolution Trend of the LERS from the Perspective of the Evolution Tradition of Hong Kong's region Monetary System

作　　者：王博文 Wang Bowen

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院港澳经济研究室

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2024年第4期89-111,6,共24页International Economic Review

摘　　要：联系汇率制度作为香港地区金融体系的基石,其演变趋势值得研究,这需要回顾和总结香港地区货币制度演变的历程和传统。关键问题在于港币如何挂锚,而核心传统做法是以货币发行局的方式将港币锚定货币金字塔的顶层货币,当旧锚货币衰落便寻找新锚货币并与之挂钩。这一传统经验是香港地区货币制度所处的历史结构的产物。从国际政治经济学视角看,香港地区货币制度形成和演变主要源于三个结构性特征:国际货币体系的等级性和霸权性、香港地区产业结构的外向性和灵活性、香港地区政治制度的偏向性和承压性。中短期看,多数结构性特征难以改变,仅部分结构性特征有弱化之势。基于此,展望演变趋势,以挂钩美元为核心要义的联系汇率制度仍然最适合香港地区;最可能的变革节点是美元霸权地位被替代之时,外部金融冲击和香港地区内部问题共振引发的变革风险也不容忽视;最可能的变革方式仍是被动挂钩顶层货币,其中港币自由流动是必选项;以私营商业银行为主、政府为辅的货币发行制度仍会延续。相较于如何挂锚,在国际政治经济体系变动背景下怎样参与造锚更关键,也更艰巨。The linked exchange rate system(LERS)is the cornerstone of Hong Kong's region financial system,and its evolution trend is worth studying,which requires reviewing and summarizing the evolution process and tradition of Hong Kong's region monetary system.The key issue is how to link the Hong Kong currency to its anchor currency.The core traditional approach is to anchor the Hong Kong currency to the top currency of the currency pyramid in the manner of the currency board,and to find a new anchor currency and link the Hong Kong currency with it when the old anchor currency declines.This traditional approach is the product of the historical structure of Hong Kong's region monetary system.From the perspective of international political economy,the formation and evolution of Hong Kong's region monetary system mainly stem from three structural characteristics:The hierarchical and hegemonic nature of the international monetary system;The outward-looking and flexible nature of Hong Kong's region industrial structure;The bias and pressure-bearing nature of Hong Kong's region political system.In the short to medium term,most structural characteristics are difficult to change,and only some structural characteristics tend to weaken.Based on this,looking forward to the evolution trend of the LERS,we can come to four conclusions:The LERS with the core principle of pegging to the US dollar remains the most appropriate arrangement for Hong Kong;The most likely point of change is when the hegemonic position of the US dollar is replaced,and the risk of change triggered by the resonance of external financial shocks and Hong Kong's region internal problems should not be ignored;The most likely way of change is still to passively link the Hong Kong currency to the top-level currency,with the free flow of Hong Kong currency being a necessary option;Currency issuance system dominated by private commercial banks and supplemented by the government will continue.Compared with how to anchor the Hong Kong currency to the top currency,how to p

关 键 词：香港地区 货币制度 联系汇率 演变 国际政治经济学 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学] F832.6