中美农产品贸易是否存在“生产率悖论”——基于增加值视角的检验  

Is There"Productivity Paradox"in Sino-US Agricultural Product Trade:Testfrom Perspective of Value-Added Trade

作　　者：任慧 林海[2] Ren Hui;Lin Hai(Agricultural Trade Promotion Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs;ChinaAgricultural University)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部农业贸易促进中心 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际经济合作》2024年第4期77-90,94,共15页Journal of International Economic Cooperation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“重大公共卫生事件对我国全球价值链分工地位的影响机制及对策研究”(编号:20&ZD119)。

摘　　要：全球价值链背景下,中美农产品双边贸易实际收益水平与传统贸易数据存在背离。通过从增加值视角核算中美两国间真实贸易情况,并构建增加值贸易引力模型探究生产率影响效应,结果表明:在中美农产品双边贸易模型中,全要素生产率的提高显著降低了两国农产品行业的总出口和总增加值出口;在中美各自的对外贸易模型中,总出口受本国生产率影响为正,增加值层面两国都存在明显的“生产率悖论”问题。中美两国生产率对农产品双边贸易收益的促进效应体现在出口聚集型行业,即农产品行业需要更多地开放出口市场,参与全球价值链,才能通过转型升级、提高生产率来促进贸易收益。In the context of global value chains,the real gains from bilateral agricultural product trade between China and the US are deviated from the traditional trade statistics.This paper calculates the real trade gains between the two countries from the perspective of value-added trade and constructs a gravity model of value-added trade to explore the effect of productivity.The empirical results show that in the Sino-US bilateral agricultural product trade model,the increase in the total factor productivity significantly reduces the total export volume and the total value-added exports of the agricultural product industries in both countries.In the two countries'respective foreign trade models,the total export volume is positively affected by domestic productivity.At the value-added level,there is an obvious"productivity paradox"in China and the US.The promotion effect of productivity in China and the US on the gains from the bilateral agricultural trade is reflected in the export-intensive industries,that is,it is necessary for the agricultural product industries to open up more export markets and participate in the global value chain,so as to increase trade gains through transformation and upgrading and improving productivity.

关 键 词：贸易收益 增加值 全要素生产率 引力模型 “生产率悖论” 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] F752F757