风险动物园(VI):黑天鹅的隐喻溯源、嬗变历程与研究展望  

Risk zoo(VI):metaphorical traceability,evolution process and research outlook of black swans

作　　者：佟瑞鹏[1] 梁梵洁 孟子尧 王益艳 TONG Ruipeng;LIANG Fanjie;MENG Ziyao;WANG Yiyan(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第6期10-19,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52074302);北京市自然科学基金资助(8212015)。

摘　　要：为防范黑天鹅带来的不确定性风险和极端影响,在隐喻理论视角下深入研究黑天鹅的溯源、嬗变与展望。首先,从历史源流与发展态势2方面,采用概念整合理论分析黑天鹅风险隐喻的认知构建机制,总结黑天鹅总体发展态势,在此基础上划分黑天鹅创建奠基、探索发展、创新完善3个重要嬗变阶段,提出数智赋能背景下黑天鹅的研究困境与未来展望。研究结果表明:黑天鹅的风险隐喻含义是具有稀有性、偶发性,出人意料且无法预测,并产生极端负面影响的风险事件;黑天鹅风险隐喻的发展将进入数量波动变化的理论分化阶段,研究方向应从泛化应用到精准应用、从单一风险到复合风险、从孤岛研究到群体研究。In order to prevent the risk of uncertainty and extreme impact brought by the black swan,the origin,transmutation and prospect of the black swan were studied in depth under the perspective of metaphor theory.Firstly,the conceptual integration theory was adopted to analyze the cognitive construction mechanism of the black swan risk metaphor from the aspects of historical flow and development trend,summarize the overall development trend of the black swan,and on the basis of this,divide the black swan into three important transmutation stages of founding,exploring development,and innovating and perfecting,so as to put forward the research dilemma and future outlook of the black swan under the background of digital intelligence empowerment.The results show that the risk metaphor meaning of black swan is a risk event with rarity,episodic,unexpected and unpredictable,and extremely negative impact;the development of the black swan risk metaphor will enter the stage of theoretical differentiation of quantitative fluctuation and change,and the direction of the research should be from generalized application to precise application,from single risk to composite risk,and from silo research to group research.

关 键 词：风险动物园 黑天鹅 风险隐喻 嬗变历程 概念整合 不确定性 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]