基于改进功能共振分析法的SPO风险演化  

SPO risk evolution based on improved functional resonance analysis method

作　　者：时统宇 马煜森 曹宇杰 付宇翔 王岩韬[1] SHI Tongyu;MA Yusen;CAO Yujie;FU Yuxiang;WANG Yantao(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第6期29-38,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3002502);中国民航大学空管实验技术创新基金资助(kgsycxjj-202402)。

摘　　要：为充分识别单一飞行员运行(SPO)模式下各子系统要素间的交互关系和耦合作用,梳理风险演化机制,使用改进功能共振分析法(FRAM)构建定量分析模型。采用模糊综合评判法评估系统功能模块的功能可变性;引入结构重要性概念,分析计算系统功能模块的上下游耦合变异性,厘清系统各功能要素间耦合作用影响机制;针对SPO特定场景案例,应用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算功能共振风险指数,分析潜在功能共振情况,并设置有效功能屏障。结果表明:改进的FRAM法可以解释SPO的非线性耦合情况,空中交通管制服务、飞行员认知状态、机长操纵等模块的功能可变性耦合变化指数较大,均超过2.5;进近着陆场景中机组技术培训、重要气象信息、空中交通管制服务、地面信息保障等8个功能容易出现功能共振情况;结合功能共振结果,设置物理、象征、功能、隐形种功能安全屏障措施,并以此得出针对性运行保障建议。To fully identify the interaction and coupling effects between the subsystem elements in SPO mode,an improved FRAM was developed to propose a quantitative analysis model based on the risk evolution mechanism.Firstly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the functional variability of system functional modules.Then,the concept of structural importance was introduced to analyze upstream and downstream coupling variability of functional modules of the computational system and determine the coupling effect mechanism between various functional elements of the system.Finally,the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the functional resonance risk index for SPO-specific scenarios,analyze potential functional resonance situations,and set effective functional barriers.The results showed that the improved functional resonance analysis method can explain the nonlinear coupling situation of SPO.The functional variability coupling change index of modules such as air traffic control and services,pilot cognitive state,and captain control was relatively high with a value of more than 2.5.In the approach and landing scenario,eight functions(e.g.,crew technical training,important meteorological information,air traffic control services,and ground information support)were prone to functional resonance.Combined with the functional resonance results,the physical,symbolic,functional,and invisible functional safety barrier measures were set to provide specific operational suggestions.

关 键 词：功能共振分析法(FRAM) 单一飞行员运行(SPO) 风险演化 耦合变化 功能可变性 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]