电力市场中基于报价策略画像的发电成本估计  

Generation Cost Estimation Based on Bidding Strategy Portrait in Power Market

作　　者：唱友义 蒯继鹏 赵适宜 夏楠楠 辛洁晴[2] Chang Youyi;Kuai Jipeng;Zhao Shiyi;Xia Nannan;Xin Jieqing(Liaoning Electric Power Trading Center,Shenyang Liaoning 110055,China;Department of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省电力交易中心,辽宁沈阳110055 [2]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240

出　　处：《电气自动化》2024年第4期100-102,共3页Electrical Automation

摘　　要：针对发电商申报的成本信息可能失真的问题,提出一种基于报价策略画像的发电成本估计方法。首先采用画像技术,基于历史报价,对发电商报价策略偏好进行分析,找出按“成本加成”策略报价的发电商集;随后提出一种“分层拟合法”,实施各单机容量机组发电成本函数及其合理波动范围分析;最后对我国北方某省的案例进行分析。结果表明:所提方法能获得准确度可信的发电成本波动范围,为市场电力监测提供依据。A power generation cost estimation method based on bidding strategy profiling was proposed to address the issue of possible distortion of cost information declared by power generators.Firstly,using portrait technology and based on historical quotations,the bidding strategy preferences of power generators were analyzed to find out the set of power generators quoting according to the“cost plus”strategy;subsequently,a“layered fitting method”was proposed to analyze the generation cost functions and reasonable fluctuation ranges for units with various installed capacities;finally,a case study of a certain province was carried out in northern China.The results indicate that the proposed method can obtain an accurate and reliable range of power generation cost fluctuations,providing a basis for market power monitoring.

关 键 词：电力市场 市场电力监管 发电成本 报价策略 用户画像 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]