黄河流域城市群碳排放时空演变多尺度分析  

Multi-scale Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of CarbonEmissions in Urban Agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：宋冬凌 卢文宇 SONG Dongling;LU Wenyu(School of Management and Economics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期48-59,共12页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY219)。

摘　　要：分析黄河流域城市群碳排放时空演变规律,对于全流域生态保护和高质量发展至关重要。基于类DMSP-OLS中国夜间灯光数据,构建了黄河流域城市群能源消费碳排放模型,并分别从城市群、市级、县级尺度模拟黄河流域2005—2021年碳排放情况,分析其时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)黄河流域七大城市群所在省份的碳排放量和夜间灯光TDN总值的拟合系数均大于0.9,平均相对误差较小,可提供良好的数据支撑。(2)2005—2021年黄河流域七大城市群的碳排放总量持续增长,年均增长率呈下降趋势,山东半岛城市群高碳城市和县区的数量逐渐下降,呼包鄂榆城市群高碳城市和县区的数量表现为先上升后下降的趋势。(3)黄河流域城市群碳排放存在显著的空间聚集模式,市级碳排放高值聚集区域分布在山东半岛城市群、呼包鄂榆城市群,低值聚集区域分布在兰西城市群;县级碳排放分布模式与市级的有所不同,县级碳排放高值聚集区域较市级的增加了宁夏沿黄城市群的部分县区,碳排放低值聚集区域较市级的增加了关中平原城市群的部分县区。It is important to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin for ecological protection and high-quality development of the whole basin.Based on the DMSP-OLS nighttime lighting data in China,a carbon emission model for energy consumption in urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin was constructed.The carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021 are simulated at the city cluster,municipal and county scales,and their spatial and temporal evolution patterns are analyzed.The results are as follows.Firstly,the fitting coefficients of carbon emissions and the total value of nighttime light TDN in the provinces where the seven major urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin are located are all greater than 0.9,and the average relative errors are small,which can provide good data support.Secondly,the total carbon emissions of the seven major urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin continue to grow from 2005 to 2021,with the average annual growth rate showing a downward trend.The number of high-carbon cities and counties in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is gradually decreasing.The number of high carbon cities and counties in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.Thirdly,the carbon emissions of the urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin showed a significant positive correlation.The city-level carbon emission high-value aggregation areas were distributed in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration,and the low-value aggregation areas were distributed in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.The distribution pattern of carbon emissions at the county level is different from that at the municipal level,with the addition of some counties in the Ningxia along the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration to the area of high value aggregation of carbon emissions.Some counties in Guanzhong

关 键 词：城市群 碳排放 夜间灯光数据 探索性空间数据分析 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]