基于中国重点城市生态环境政策的“污染天堂假说”准自然实验  

A Quasi-Natural Experiment of the ″Pollution Paradise Hypothesis″Based on Ecological and Environmental Policies of Key Cities in China

作　　者：刘叶[1] 张梦珂 李文静 LIU Ye;ZHANG Mengke;LI Wenjing(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450046 [2]郑州大学,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期85-91,共7页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY219);河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022CJJ154);河南省软科学研究项目(242400411207)。

摘　　要：为了揭示生态环境政策对投资的影响,在“双碳”目标下,基于“污染天堂假说”理论,选取2003—2020年全国287个地级市的面板数据,以是否为环境保护重点监控城市作为标准,将287个城市划分为控制组与对照组,分别构建了实证模型,开展了双重差分研究,并对双重差分结果进行了稳健性检验和异质性检验。结果表明:(1)实证模型的双重差分结果均具有稳健性。(2)环境规制对外商投资具有抑制作用;相较于非重点城市,环保重点城市的实际利用外资水平降低了0.125%。(3)环保重点城市中,东部城市受环保重点城市政策的影响较中西部城市的更为显著,且相比高污染城市,低污染城市的实际利用外资水平的下降幅度更大。In order to reveal the impact of ecological and environmental policies on investment,the panel data of 287 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2020 were selected based on the″pollution paradise hypothesis″theory under the″dual carbon″goal.Taking whether it is a key monitoring city for environmental protection as a criterion,287 cities were divided into a control group and a comparison group,and empirical models were constructed separately.A double difference study was conducted and the double difference results were tested for robustness and heterogeneity.The results are as follows.Firstly,the double difference results of the empirical models are robust.Secondly,environmental regulation has a restraining effect on foreign investment.Compared with non-key cities,the actual utilization level of foreign capital in key environmental protection cities decreased by 0.125%.Thirdly,among the key cities of environmental protection,the eastern cities are more significantly affected by the policies of key cities of environmental protection than the central and western cities,and the actual utilization level of foreign capital in low-pollution cities has a greater decline than that in high-pollution cities.

关 键 词：环境政策 环保重点城市 投资 影响机制 准自然实验 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]