1979-2022年赤水河流域极端温度降水特征分析  

Analysis of Extreme Summer Temperature and Precipitation Characteristics in the Chishui River Basin from 1979 to 2022

作　　者：杨雨蒙 吴新豪 张莉 赵亮[4] 赵劲松 张正强 穆彪[5] YANG Yumeng;WU Xinhao;ZHANG Li;ZHAO Liang;ZHAO Jinsong;ZHANG Zhengqiang;MU Biao(Guizhou Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Guiyang 550081,China;Renhuai Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Renhuai Guizhou 564501,China;Renhuai Branch of Zunyi Ecological Environment Bureau,Renhuai Guizhou 564500,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Life Sciences,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象灾害防御技术中心,贵阳550081 [2]贵州省仁怀市气象局,贵州仁怀564501 [3]遵义市生态环境局仁怀分局,贵州仁怀564501 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [5]贵州大学,生命科学学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第8期138-149,共12页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA23090102);国家自然科学基金项目(31860610);贵州省仁怀市政府项目(GZBL-CG22-A(2022-152号)).

摘　　要：基于气温日均值资料,评估了欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析数据集(ERA5)资料在赤水河流域周边地区的可信度.通过ERA5计算1979-2022年间赤水河流域及周边地区的极端温度和降水特征.结果表明:春季热源在2000年后发生位相转换,呈青藏高原暖周边冷分布,异常信号进一步影响位于下游的赤水河流域,导致该地温度上升,降水减少.赤水河流域2005年前后温度、降水模态发生位相转换,由于温度经向梯度异常,阻碍夏季西南风发生发展,导致该地水汽条件不充分,转为干热气候.其中,2006年、2013年、2022年为异常暖干年份.在该气候背景下高温指数与降水显著相关,满足高温总伴随少雨天气现象,且干热复合事件出现次数逐年增多.There is a lack of systematic research on climate change in temperature and precipitation in the Chishui River basin.We found that ERA5 dataset has a high degree of confidence in the surrounding areas of the basin through the comparative assessment.Based on ERA5,we analysed the extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics in the basin during the period 1979-2022.The results show that the spring apparent heat source underwent a phase shift after 2000,showing a cold distribution around the warm Tibetan Plateau,and the anomalous signal further affected the Chishui River basin,which is located downstream,leading to an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation.The basin underwent a phase shift in temperature and precipitation patterns around 2005.Due to the anomalous temperature meridional gradient,which prevented the development of southwester in summer.The water vapour conditions in the area were inadequate,which turned climate to dry and hot.Attention should be payed that 2006,2013 and 2022 were the anomalously warm and dry years.The high temperature index was significantly correlated with precipitation in this climatic context,and high temperatures were always accompanied by low rainfall,with the number of compound dry-hot events increasing each year.

关 键 词：气候变暖 极端温度 赤水河流域 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]