基于集对-组合赋权的填埋场失稳风险评价方法  

Risk assessment of landfill instability based on set pair-combination weighting

作　　者：冯世进[1,2] 徐熠 杨俊毅 郑奇腾 张晓磊[1,2] FENG Shi-jin;XU Yi;YANG Jun-yi;ZHENG Qi-teng;ZHANG Xiao-lei(Department of Geotechnical Engineering College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Baise Hub Navigation Investment Co.,Ltd,Baise,Guangxi 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院地下建筑与工程系,上海200092 [2]同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092 [3]百色枢纽通航投资有限公司,广西百色533000

出　　处：《岩土力学》2024年第7期2129-2139,共11页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.41931289);上海市科委社发领域项目(No.20DZ1203402,No.21DZ1209601)。

摘　　要：我国填埋场具有高水位、高气压的特征,现有规范和研究中虽提出了不同的稳定性评价指标和分级标准,但对指标权重和综合风险评估缺乏系统性研究。为此,建立了涵盖填埋场几何构型、垃圾土抗剪强度、液气赋存情况和降雨4类7个指标的填埋场失稳风险评价指标体系,通过参数敏感性分析实现5级分类(稳定、较稳定、基本稳定、不稳定、极不稳定),并采用集对分析构建指标联系度函数。采用指标重要性排序法,通过参数敏感性分析、工程失稳事故、文献关注度统计和博弈论组合赋权,确定了评价指标的综合权重。最后,将指标综合权重与指标联系度函数耦合,建立了填埋场失稳风险综合评价模型,并应用于一实际填埋场工程中,与现场实际监测数据结果一致,验证了评价模型的准确性和有效性。Landfill sites in China are characterized by high water levels and high air pressures.Despite the proposal of various stability evaluation indicators and grading standards in existing regulations and research,there remains a lack of systematic research on indicator weights and comprehensive risk assessment.Therefore,this study establishes a landfill instability risk assessment index system encompassing seven indicators across four categories:landfill geometric configuration,shear strength of waste soil,liquid and gas occurrence,and rainfall.Through parameter sensitivity analysis,a five-level classification(stable,relatively stable,basically stable,unstable,extremely unstable)is achieved,and set pair analysis is employed to construct the indicator correlation function.The comprehensive weights of the evaluation indicators are determined through the importance ranking of indicators,combined with parameter sensitivity analysis,engineering instability accidents,literature attention statistics,and game theory-based combination weighting.Subsequently,a comprehensive evaluation model for landfill instability risk is established by coupling the comprehensive weights of indicators with the indicator correlation function.This model is then applied to an actual landfill project,and the results are consistent with the actual monitoring data on site,thereby verifying the accuracy and effectiveness of the evaluation model.

关 键 词：垃圾填埋场 稳定性 评价指标体系 集对分析 敏感性分析 组合赋权 风险评价 

分 类 号：O319.56[理学—一般力学与力学基础]