基于未来降雨的水库实时优化调度研究  

Optimal Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoir Based on Future Rainfall

作　　者：郑晗 程扬健[1] 李红[1,2] 聂闻[2] ZHENG Han;CHENG Yangjian;LI Hong;NIE Wen(School of Advanced Manufacturing,Fuzhou University,Jinjiang 362200,Fujian,China;Quanzhou Institute of Equipment Manufacturing Haixi Institutes,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Quanzhou 362000,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学先进制造学院,福建晋江362200 [2]中国科学院海西研究院泉州装备制造研究中心,福建泉州362000

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第8期11-15,27,共6页Water Power

基　　金：福建省科学院科学技术合作计划(STS2022T3051)。

摘　　要：为了充分利用未来降雨信息指导水库调度,构建了以最大削峰为目标的水库实时调度模型,提出了一种考虑未来降雨信息的水库优化调度方法,基于水箱模型利用24 h降雨量预报信息预测入库流量并建立每个时段的泄洪指标求解模型。以山美水库防洪调度为例进行研究,与降雨启发信息优化调度方法进行比较,结果表明,此优化调度方法在目标函数上表现更好,与利用洪水预报的优化调度方法效果相近,能较好地解决来水不确定性的问题。To fully utilize future rainfall information for reservoir operation,a real-time optimization model with the objective of maximum flood peak reduction is constructed,and a reservoir optimization operation method is proposed considering future rainfall information.This method predicts inflow using 24h rainfall forecast information based on the tank model and establishes outflow targets for each time period to solve the model.Taking the Shanmei Reservoir flood control operation as an example and comparing the proposed optimization scheduling method with the optimization scheduling method combined with heuristic rainfall information,the result shows the proposed reservoir optimization scheduling method performs better in terms of the objective function,closely matches the performance of the flood forecast-based method,and can effectively solve the problem of water inflow uncertainty.

关 键 词：实时优化调度 最大削峰准则 未来降雨 水箱模型 山美水库 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]