基于潜在类别模型的通勤出行行为异质性研究  

Investigating Heterogeneities in Commuting Travel Behavior:A Latent Class Modeling Approach

作　　者：耿曙光 叶昕 王可 GENG Shuguang;YE Xin;WANG Ke(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education,College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai,201804,China;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学交通运输工程学院教育部道路交通工程重点实验室,上海201804 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第7期113-118,185,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71734004);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(PA2023000196)。

摘　　要：城市居民通勤出行是影响城市交通状况的重要组成部分,为捕捉通勤出行者出行方式选择偏好异质性,利用上海市居民出行网络问卷调查RP(Revealed Preference)数据和上海综合交通网络数据,选取个人月收入、婚姻状况、年龄、居住类型等个人属性和车内时间、到站距离和换乘等待时间等各出行方式服务水平变量构建潜在类别模型。研究结果表明:潜在类别模型可以运用通勤出行者的个人属性将出行者划分为“公共交通偏好者”和“小汽车偏好者”两类群体,不同类别的通勤出行者对于同一出行方式选择影响因素的感知敏感度不同。在通勤出行方式选择中引入出行者类别能够提高模型的拟合优度,潜在类别模型能够刻画不同类别的通勤出行者对于出行方式的选择偏好异质性。Urban residents'commuting trips are an important component affecting urban traffic conditions.Based on the RP(Revealed Preference)trip data of Shanghai travel network questionnaire and the comprehensive transportation network data of Shanghai,the latent class model is used to capture the preference heterogeneity of commuters'travel mode choice.The sociodemographic characteristics of the sample are selected as variables of segment membership function,and the Level-of-Service characteristics of diferent travel modes are used as explanatory variables for mode choice.The results indicate that commuters are divided into public transportation preference group and car-pro group based on the latent class model and commuters'sociodemographic characteristics.Different types of commuters have different perceptual sensitivities to the same factors influencing the travel mode choice.Introducing traveler category into commuting mode choice model can improve the goodness-of-fit of the model,and the latent class model can capture the preference heterogeneity of different types of commuters for travel mode choice.

关 键 词：城市交通 偏好异质性 潜在类别模型 出行方式选择 通勤者 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]