藏粮于地视角下新疆灌区土肥水关联效应分析  

Analysis on the Correlation Effect of Soil,Fertilizer and Water in Xinjiang Irrigation Area from the Perspective of Storing Grain in the Ground

作　　者：崔师胜 周和平[2] CUI Shisheng;ZHOU Heping(Water Resources Management Center of Xinjiang Baiyang River Basin Administration,Urumqi 830039,China;Water Resources Management Station of Water Resources Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆白杨河流域管理局水利管理中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830039 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区水利厅水利管理总站,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第8期130-136,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：新疆水利科技专项(XSKJ-2022-17)。

摘　　要：为探究新疆干旱纯灌溉农业灌区土肥水要素对农业产出的影响效应,本文以藏粮于地新视角,应用逐步回归统计检验法,对多维投入因素与产出指标筛选分析,形成了灌区土壤质地壤土面积占比、化肥纯施用量、灌溉用水量与主要作物产量关系;采用柯布—道格拉斯模型分析灌区土肥水关联效应及影响程度。结果表明:1)耕地质量(基于壤土面积占比)和施肥水平及灌溉用水量(即土肥水),是灌区投入产出系统的基本要素。2)灌区耕地质量和施肥水平及灌溉用水量对作物产出边际效应大小顺序为化肥纯施用量Δf>灌溉用水量Δs>土壤质地壤土面积占比Δt。3)土肥水对作物产出影响占比系数大小顺序为K_(灌溉用水)>K_(施肥)>K_(耕地),反映了灌溉、肥料及土壤质地条件主次关系,表征土肥水是高标准农田水利核心内容。4)灌区优化分析灌溉用水量8 203 m^(3)/hm^(2)与现状相近,略高出新疆地标灌溉用水定额的5.98%,优化肥施量260 kg/hm^(2)比现状可节省15%。In order to explore the effects of soil,fertilizer and water factors on agricultural output in Xinjiang arid and purely irrigated agricul-tural irrigation area,this paper,from the new perspective of grain storage in the ground,applied stepwise regression statistical test method to screen and analyze multi-dimensional input factors and output indicators,and formed the relationship between the proportion of soil texture loam area,pure fertilizer application amount,irrigation water consumption and main crop yield in the irrigation area.Cobb-Douglas model was used to analyze the correlation effect of soil,fertilizer and water in irrigation area.The results indicate that a)the quality of cultivated land(based on the proportion of loam area),fertilization level and irrigation water consumption(i.e.soil,fertilizer and water)are the basic elements of the input-output system in irrigation areas.b)The order of marginal effects of cultivated land quality,fertilization level and irri-gation water usage on crop output in irrigation areas is:pure fertilizer application rateΔf>irrigation water usageΔs>proportion of soil tex-ture and loam areaΔt.c)The order of the proportion coefficient of the impact of soil,fertilizer and water on crop output is K_(irrigation water)>K_(fertilization)>K_(cultivated),reflecting the primary and secondary relationship between irrigation,fertilizer and soil texture conditions,indicating that soil,fertilizer and water are the core contents of high standard agricultural water conservancy.d)The optimization analysis of irrigation areas shows that the irrigation water consumption of 8203 m^(3)/hm^(2) is similar to the current situation,slightly higher than that the 5.98%of Xin-jiang’s landmark irrigation water quota.The optimized fertilizer application rate of 260 kg/hm^(2) can save 15%compared to the current situa-tion.

关 键 词：藏粮于地的视角 新疆干旱区 农业灌区 土肥水相关性 效果分析 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源] S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]