基于相对差异度改进的可变模糊溃坝生命损失率等级评价  

Life Loss Assessment of Variable Fuzzy Dam Break Based on Relative Difference Degree Improvement

作　　者：李巍 衣建妮[1] 葛巍 焦余铁[2] LI Wei;YI Jianni;GE Wei;JIAO Yutie(Henan Engineering Research Center of Rail Transit Intelligent Security,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省轨道交通智能安全工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第8期143-148,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079127,52179144,U2040224,U2243244);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2016CB000000);河南省科技攻关项目(202102310316,202102310394);河南省高校科技创新人才计划项目(22HASTIT011);河南省青年人才支持项目(2021HYTP024);国家大坝安全研究中心基金资助项目(CX2021B01);河南省教委科技发展计划项目(202102310394)。

摘　　要：针对传统可变模糊数学评价模型在处理呈指数态渐变指标时出现的等级隶属度跃变情况,综合考虑溃坝生命损失系统的模糊性和随机性,对评价模型进行了相关改进,提出了一种基于改进可变模糊的溃坝生命损失率评价模型。对传统评价模型中的相对差异度函数进行了改进,并将改进的方法应用于4个水库的生命损失率风险后果排序。实际生命损失率与生命损失率风险等级的排序结果一致,改进后模型的科学性和实用性得到验证。Aiming at the issue of membership leaping that may occur in the conventional variable fuzzy evaluation method when dealing with exponential changing index,based on the improvement of the model,considering the fuzziness and randomness of the dam break life loss sys-tem,this manuscript promoted a model which could evaluate the human life loss caused by dam break flood.The relative difference formula was improved by logarithmic transformation and boundary constraint.The improved method was proved to be effective after applied to 4 reser-voirs.The calculation result of the life loss rate and the risk level of life loss rate were consistent.This verified result and the promoted model can provide new ideas and new methods in the risk management of reservoir dams,and enrich and supplement the risk management theory.

关 键 词：溃坝 生命损失 可变模糊法 风险 

分 类 号：TV122.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]