婺源蓝冠噪鹛种群生存力分析  

Population Viability Analysis of Blue-crowned Laughingthrush in Wuyuan County

作　　者：肖畅 程彬彬 石金泽[1,3] 黎敏灵 刘洁 杨军 张微微 XIAO Chang;CHENG Binbin;SHI Jinze;LI Minling;LIU Jie;YANG Jun;ZHANG Weiwei(Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang,330045,China;National Conservation and Research Center for Blue-crowned Laughingthrush,Nanchang,330045,China;College of Wildlife and Protected Area,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin,150040,China;Jiangxi Wuyuan Forest Bird National Nature Reserve Administration,Shangrao,333299,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学保护生物学重点实验室,南昌330045 [2]蓝冠噪鹛国家研究保护中心,南昌330045 [3]东北林业大学野生动物与自然保护地学院,哈尔滨150040 [4]江西婺源森林鸟类国家级自然保护区管理局,上饶333299

出　　处：《野生动物学报》2024年第3期531-541,共11页CHINESE JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32360251);江西省林业科技创新项目(GJJ180225)。

摘　　要：为了解蓝冠噪鹛(Pterorhinus courtoisi)的灭绝风险,预测未来种群变化趋势,采用Vortex 10.5.0模型对蓝冠噪鹛进行种群生存力分析,并模拟不同参数对蓝冠噪鹛种群数量的影响,探索制约蓝冠噪鹛种群增长的主要因子,为该物种的保护管理提供科学依据。结果显示:在标准状态下(考虑近交、灾难因素),蓝冠噪鹛灭绝概率为73%,内禀增长率(R)为0.1480,周期增长率(λ)为1.1595,净生殖率(R0)为1.5046,雌性和雄性的平均世代时间(T)为2.76 a。在9个参数敏感度分析中,性别比例、1岁后雄性死亡率和天敌灾害发生频率3个参数是影响种群数量变化的主要参数。结果表明,在复杂的环境条件下蓝冠噪鹛仍有灭绝风险,其保护工作仍面临较大压力。控制天敌捕食压力、提高蓝冠噪鹛雄鸟成活率,将有益于蓝冠噪鹛种群增长。In order to understand the extinction risk and predict the future population change trend,we analyzed the popu⁃lation viability of blue-crowned laughingthrush(Pterorhinus courtoisi)by using Vortex 10.5.0.The effects of different pa⁃rameters on the population were simulated to explore the main factors limiting the population growth and provide basic data for the conservation and management of this species.The results indicated the extinction probability of this species was 0.73 in the next 100 years,innate rate of increase(R)was 0.1480,instantaneous increase ratio(λ)was 1.1595,net re⁃production rate(R0)was 1.5046,and the average generation time of the females and males(T)was 2.76 years under the standard conditions(considering inbreeding and catastrophes).In the sensitivity analysis of nine parameters,the sex ratio,males annual mortality after age 1,and the frequency of predators were the main parameters that affect the change of the population size.Under complex environmental conditions,blue-crowned laughingthrush faces a risk of extinction,and its conservation work are still under great pressure.Increasing the survival rate of male birds will be beneficial to the population growth of this species.

关 键 词：蓝冠噪鹛 种群生存力分析 Vortex模型 婺源 

分 类 号：Q958.1[生物学—动物学]