基于PSO-RF模型的汉江流域参考作物蒸散量模拟研究  

Simulation of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Based on PSO-RF in the Hanjiang Basin

作　　者：葛杰 曹绮欣 张晓鹏 雷龙 陈至立 冯家豪 GE Jie;CAO Qi-xin;ZHANG Xiao-peng;LEI Long;CHEN Zhi-li;FENG Jia-hao(Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710065,China;Hebei Tianhe Consulting Co.,Ltd,Shijiazhuang 050000)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065 [2]河北天和咨询有限公司,石家庄050000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第8期849-859,共11页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：陕西省科技统筹创新计划项目(2016KTZDNY−01−01)。

摘　　要：选取1960−2017年汉江流域及附近24个气象站的逐日气象数据,构建16种基于粒子群算法优化随机森林(PSO-RF)的日尺度ET0计算模型,并与Hargreaves-Samani、Makkink和Irmark-Allen共3种模型进行比较,评价PSO-RF模型在汉江流域的适用性及可移植性。结果表明:(1)PSO-RF模型能很好地识别各输入参数与日尺度ET0的非线性关系;仅采用最高气温(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin)和地球外辐射(Ra)建立的PSO-RF2模型具有足够精度,平均MAE为0.402mm·d^(−1),RMSE为0.575mm·d^(−1),R^(2)为0.863;随输入气象要素数量增加,模型计算精度不断升高,平均MAE减小了37.9%,RMSE减小了36.3%,R^(2)升高了6.78%。(2)PSO-RF模型的计算精度优于相同输入参数的Hargreaves-Samani、Makkink和Irmark-Allen模型,平均MAE减小了43.6%、RMSE减小了34.5%,R2升高了4.12%。(3)PSO-RF模型在汉江流域具有较强的泛化能力和可移植性,分区建立的PSO-RF模型相互移植时,平均MAE为0.159mm·d^(−1),RMSE为0.245mm·d^(−1),R^(2)为0.974。因此缺乏气象数据时,基于PSO-RF建立的日尺度ET0计算模型可作为汉江流域日尺度ET0计算的推荐模型。Sixteen daily scale ET0 calculation models were developed using the particle swarm optimization algorithm and random forest(PSO-RF)based on daily meteorological data collected from 24 meteorological stations in the Hanjiang dasin and it’s vicinity from 1960 to 2017,and were compared with Hargreaves-Samani,Irmark-Allen and Makkink,which applicability and portability were evaluated.The results showed that:(1)the non-linear relation between daily ET0 and each input parameter can be well displayed by PSO-RF model.The PSO-RF2 established by Tmax,Tmin and Ra had sufficient accuracy(MAE=0.402 mm·d^(-1),RMSE=0.575mm·d^(-1),R^(2)=0.863).With the increase of meteorological elements,the computational accuracy of PSO-RF model was improved(MAE decreased by 37.9%,RMSE decreased by 36.3%,R^(2)increased by 6.78%).(2)When the input factors and number of models are the same,the PSO-RF model had higher simulation accuracy than Hargreaves-Samani,Irmark-Allen,and Makkink models(MAE decreased by 43.6%,RMSE decreased by 34.5%,R^(2) increased by 4.12%).(3)The PSO-RF model had strong generalization ability and portability in the Hanjiang basin.High accuracy was shown in mutual portability of PSO-RF models established in different zone(MAE=0.159mm·d−1,RMSE=0.245mm·d−1,R2=0.974).Therefore,the model based on PSO-RF can be used as a recommended model for the calculation of daily ET0 in Hanjiang basin in the absence of meteorological data.

关 键 词：汉江流域 参考作物蒸散量 PSO RF 可移植性 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]