珠三角城市群流动人口居留意愿的特征分异及影响因素  

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Floating Population's Settlement Intention in the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：黎芷嫣 谭一洺 黄耿志[1,2] Li Zhiyan;Tan Yiming;Huang Gengzhi(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510006,China;South Marine Science and Engineering Guangzhou Laboratory,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510006 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第8期1513-1526,共14页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271204);优秀青年科学基金项目(42122007);广州市基础与应用基础研究项目(202201011230)。

摘　　要：基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,根据流动人口的期望居留时长将居留意愿划分为短期居留、长期居留、永久居留3种类型,分析流动人口的流动与居留特征,并运用多元Logistic回归模型分析其影响因素与作用差异。研究发现:1)东莞等以制造业为主要产业的城市其流动人口以短期居留意愿为主,而生活成本低或能提供综合服务的城市更能吸引流动人口长时间居留。2)虽然跨省流动人口主要来自临近省市,但来自较远省市的流动人口永久居留意愿更强;来自省内的流动人口整体倾向于长期或永久居留,并在流入城市选择上表现出一定程度的地理邻近性。3)特征为女性、年龄较大、受教育程度高、在婚、流入时间长、因非工作原因流入、收入水平较高的群体倾向于在流入地长期或永久居留,反之则倾向于短期居留;与省内流动人口相比,较高程度的社会融入更能促进跨省流动人口产生永久居留意愿。4)受教育水平、婚姻状况、收入水平、流动原因等因素在跨省与省内流动人口的影响效果上存在差异。During the stage of high-quality development,the orderly promotion of citizenization of the floating population is crucial to ensure the high-quality population development and sustainable socio-economic growth of our country.In this study,dynamic monitoring survey data of China's floating population in 2017 were referenced to categorize the settlement intentions of this population group into three types(viz.,short term,long term,and permanent) according to their expected residence duration.Subsequently,the mobility and residential characteristics of this population were analyzed by using a multinomial logistic regression model to examine differences in their demographic and family characteristics,mobility patterns,economic status,and social integration.The findings are as follows:(1) Dongguan and Huizhou,located on the east bank of the Pearl River and primarily driven by manufacturing industries,have a significant proportion of populations with short-term settlement intentions.By contrast,cities with lower living costs or more comprehensive services are more likely to attract long-term residents.(2) The inter-provincial floating population tends to flow into Shenzhen,with individuals migrating a short distance being more predominant.Long-distance inter-provincial migrants have a stronger intention to settle permanently.Within the province,the floating population tends to flow into Guangzhou,displaying a certain degree of geographical proximity in city choices and a tendency to stay long term or permanently.(3) Groups characterized by female sex,older age,higher educational level,marital status,longer inflow time,non-work-related inflow reasons,and higher income level tend to take up long-term or permanent residence at their destination.Conversely,lower levels of these characteristics are associated with shorter stays.Higher degrees of social integration can promote permanent settlement intentions among interprovincial migrants compared with the effect on their intra-provincial counterparts.(4) Each factor has di

关 键 词：流动人口 居留意愿 人口迁移 多元LOGISTIC回归 珠三角 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]