A New Tri-channel Decomposition of External Adjustment: Model and Application  

作　　者：Wangyin Hu Guangtao Xia Yingting Li 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Finance,University of International Relations,China [2]Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,China [3]Bank of China Research Institute,China

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2024年第4期68-84,共17页中国与世界经济（英文版）

基　　金：Wangyin Hu is grateful for financial support from Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities,University of International Relations(No.3262024T23);Guangtao Xia thanks the Peak Strategy of Discipline Construction of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(No.DF2023YS41);the Laboratory of World Economic Forecasting and Policy Simulation of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(No.2024SYZH003)for their financial support.

摘　　要：In this study, we expanded upon the current benchmark model of external adjustment and dissected the concept of international financial adjustment into two distinct components: valuation effect and investment income. Our enhanced model, which we refer to as “tri-channel model,” incorporates three key elements: trade balance, valuation effect, and investment income. Using a consolidated quarterly dataset that encompassed China's balance of payments and international investment positions from 1998 to 2020, we estimated the relative importance of the three newly introduced adjustment channels to China's cyclical external imbalance. We found that the trade balance channel played a major role, accounting for approximately 76 percent of cyclical external adjustment. The contribution of the investment income channel to cyclical external adjustment (21 percent) was much greater than that of the valuation effect channel (3 percent). These findings imply that policy responses to the cyclical external imbalance in China should focus more on the trade balance and investment incomes channels rather than exploiting the valuation effects.

关 键 词：external adjustment investment income trade balance valuation effect 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]