长三角地区城乡融合发展动力机制的系统动力学仿真  

System dynamics simulation of the driving mechanism of urban-rural integration development in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：段锴丰 施建刚[2] 吴光东 周佳宁 刘聪 DUAN Kaifeng;SHI Jiangang;WU Guangdong;ZHOU Jianing;LIU Cong(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;School of Public Policy and Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;College of Business,Southwest University,Chongqing 402460,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Polytechnic University,Shanghai 201209,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [3]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆400044 [4]西南大学商贸学院,重庆402460 [5]上海第二工业大学经济与管理学院,上海201209

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第7期1320-1336,共17页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL274,23CJY017);福建省自然科学基金项目(2023J05098);福建省社会科学基金项目(FJ2023C035);重庆大学人文社科重大研究计划培育项目(2022CDJSKPY13)。

摘　　要：城乡融合发展动力机制是一个持续演进并有序发挥作用的复杂、有机的运作系统。为拓展城乡融合发展动力机制相关理论体系,进而指导长三角地区城乡融合发展,论文构建了长三角地区城乡融合发展动力机制的系统动力学模型,仿真模拟并分析了4类驱动情景(包括基准情景和内生动力、外生动力、基础动力三类动力因素驱动情景)下长三角地区城乡融合发展不同维度水平以及综合水平随时间的动态演变特征,并讨论了城乡融合发展动力机制中的关键问题。研究发现:①现状延续型发展模式下,长三角地区城乡融合不同维度及综合发展水平的总体趋势向好;②三类动力因素对城乡融合发展的驱动路径各不相同,但相互之间能够弥补彼此在城乡融合发展不同维度方面驱动力不足的劣势;③外生动力和基础动力对长三角地区城乡融合发展的驱动效果明显弱于内生动力。The driving mechanism of urban-rural integration development(URID)is a complex and organic operation system that continuously evolves and plays an orderly role.In order to expand the related theoretical system on the driving mechanism of URID and guide the URID in the Yangtze River Delta,this study constructed a system dynamics model of the driving mechanism of URID in the Yangtze River Delta.The dynamic evolution characteristics of different dimensions and the comprehensive level of URID in the Yangtze River Delta over time under four types of scenarios(including the benchmark scenario and scenarios of three different types of driving factors:Endogenous factor,exogenous factor,and basic factor)were simulated and analyzed.Key issues in the driving mechanism of URID were also discussed.The results show that:1)The overall trend of the levels of different dimensions and the comprehensive level of URID in the Yangtze River Delta are positive under the benchmark scenario.2)The three types of driving factors have different driving paths to URID,but they can make up for the lack of driving force in different dimensions of URID of others.3)The driving effect of the exogenous factor and basic factor on URID in the Yangtze River Delta is obviously weaker than that of the endogenous factor.

关 键 词：城乡融合发展 长三角 动力机制 系统动力学 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F327