“人—地—业”协调视角下长株潭城市群城乡融合发展仿真模拟  

Simulation of urban-rural integration development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from the perspective of"human-land-industry"coordination

作　　者：崔树强 周国华[1,3] 李晓青[1] 吴国华[1] CUI Shuqiang;ZHOU Guohua;LI Xiaoqing;WU Guohua(College of Geographical Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Utilization,Changsha 410007,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Big Data Development and Application,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;College of Geographical Science,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030031,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学地理科学学院,长沙410081 [2]国土资源评价与利用湖南省重点实验室,长沙410007 [3]湖南师范大学地理空间大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室,长沙410081 [4]山西师范大学地理科学学院,太原030031

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第7期1337-1354,共18页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971224);国土资源评价与利用湖南省重点实验室开放课题(SYS-ZX-202106)。

摘　　要：科学认知城市群地区城乡融合系统演化过程和系统要素间相互作用关系对其优化调控具有重要意义。论文在分析城市群城乡融合发展动力作用与城乡融合系统运行机制的基础上,重点围绕城乡人口、土地与产业等主控要素,集成运用系统动力学、遗传算法等模型构建“人—地—业”协调的长株潭城市群城乡融合系统动力学模型,模拟预测其城乡融合发展趋势。研究表明:①城市群地区城乡地域系统走向融合是多源动力综合作用的结果,总体呈现城乡空间内生发展动力与城乡空间交互融合动力协同影响城乡要素自由流动、耦合关联的复杂运行过程与机制;②城市群地区城乡融合系统包含多要素非线性关系、多源动力组合与多层反馈结构,城乡“人—地—业”要素间的互馈关系演化动态影响城市群地区城乡融合系统运行状态与城乡国土空间利用格局;③多情景模拟结果表明,2035年长株潭城市群城乡总人口规模将可能突破1800万人,城乡GDP可能将增至3.5万亿~4.3万亿元左右。基于统筹协调的综合发展情景可兼顾城乡发展效率与公平,是未来长株潭城市群城乡融合发展的优化方向。研究结果可深化城市群地区城乡融合发展研究,并为长株潭城市群城乡融合发展问题诊断与优化调控提供决策参考。Scientific knowledge of the evolution process of urban-rural integration system in urban agglomerations and the interaction relationship between system elements is of great significance for its optimization and regulation.On the basis of analyzing the dynamics of urban-rural integration and the operation mechanism of urban-rural integration system,the paper focuses on the main controlling factors of urban-rural population,land and industry,and integrates the use of system dynamics,genetic algorithm and other models to construct a system dynamics model of urban-rural integration system of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration with the coordination of"human-land-industry",and simulate and predict the development trend of urban-rural integration in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.The study shows that:1)The urban-rural territorial system in the urban agglomeration area towards integration is the result of the combined effect of multiple sources of power,the overall urban-rural spatial endogenous development dynamics and urban-rural spatial interaction and integration dynamics synergistically affect the free flow of urban-rural elements,coupled with the complex operation process and mechanism.2)The urban-rural integration system in the urban agglomeration area contains multi-factor nonlinear relationship,multi-source power combination and multi-layer feedback structure,urban-rural integration system is a complex process and mechanism.The evolution of mutual feedback relationship between the elements of"human-land-industry"dynamically affects the operation status of urban-rural integration system and urban-rural spatial utilization pattern in the urban agglomeration area.3)The results of multi-scenario simulation show that,in 2035,the total urban-rural population of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration may exceed 18 million people,and the urban-rural GDP may increase to about 3.5 trillion to 4.3 trillion yuan.The integrated development scenario based on coordination can balance the effici

关 键 词：“人—地—业” 城乡融合发展 城乡融合系统 系统动力学 仿真模拟 长株潭城市群 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F327