考虑时间滞后效应的库岸滑坡位移预测  

A Prediction Model of Landslide Displacement in Reservoir Area Considering Time Lag Effect

作　　者：杜岩[1] 宁利泽 谢谟文[1] 白云飞 李恒 贾北凝 DU Yan;NING Lize;XIE Mowen;BAI Yunfei;LI Heng;JIA Beining(Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Underground Space Engineering,University of Science&Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Comprehensive Institute of Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying,Ministry of Construction,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学城市地下空间工程北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [2]建设部综合勘察设计研究院有限公司,北京100007

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2024年第8期1347-1355,共9页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41702371);地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放课题(2022-KF-01);中国矿业大学(北京)深部岩土力学与地下工程国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLGDUEK2130)。

摘　　要：在库区滑坡位移预测预报研究中,库水位响应的滞后性使得传统滑坡位移预测模型难以分析单调增长的阶跃式变形特征,严重影响预测结果。基于此,在考虑库水位时间滞后效应基础上,建立了一套可应用于工程现场的自回归分布滞后位移预测模型,并在金沙江上游某库岸滑坡进行工程应用。工程研究案例得出,库水位上升、地震是该滑坡变形加剧的主要诱发因素,且库水位作用于滑坡变形的滞后天数为8天,新模型计算滑坡累积位移与实际位移相关系数高达0.992 7,均方根误差为14.11 mm。此外,通过计算趋势速率比指标可以为滑坡监测预警提供新的敏感性评价参量。该研究不仅建立了一套具有物理意义的库岸滑坡位移预测模型,实现了滑坡位移的综合分析,而且实现了地震对滑坡位移演化贡献的定量计算,为蓄水期库岸滑坡演化全过程的安全风险管理提供了新的技术支持。Objectives:In the research work of reservoir landslide displacement prediction,due to the lag of reservoir water level response,it is difficult for the traditional landslide displacement prediction model to analyze the monotonically increasing step deformation characteristics,which seriously affects the prediction results,and it is necessary to establish a landslide displacement prediction model that can consider the time lag effect.Methods:We analyze the time lag effect of reservoir levels separately through grey correlation,account for the cumulative effect of earlier rainfall,and consider the effect of earthquake on landslide deformation,and establishe an autoregressive distributed lag landslide displacement prediction model that can be applied to engineering sites.Results:The results show that:(1)The engineering case study concluded that rising reservoir levels and earthquakes were the main triggering factors for the increased deformation of the landslide,and the lag time of reservoir levels acting on landslide deformation was 8 days.(2)The correlation coefficient between the cumulative landslide displacement and the actual displacement calculated by the new model is as high as 0.9927,with a root mean square error of 14.11 mm.(3)The calculation of trend speed ratio indicators can provide a new sensitivity evaluation parameter for landslide monitoring and early warning.Conclusions:The study establishes a physically significant prediction model for reservoir bank landslide displacements, provides a comprehensive analysis of landslide displacements, achieves a quantitativecalculation of the seismic contribution to landslide displacement evolution, and provides new technicalsupport for the safety risk management of the whole process of reservoir bank landslide evolution during thewater storage period.

关 键 词：滑坡位移预测 时间滞后效应 自回归分布滞后模型 库水位 趋势速率比 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]