中国金融权力架构与区域金融风险的空间关联——基于隐性金融分权的视角  

The Spatial Correlation between China's Financial Power Structure and Regional Financial Risks——From the Perspective of Implicit Financial Decentralization

作　　者：李娟娟 李笃蒙 刘溪源 Li Juanjuan;Li Dumeng;Liu Xiyuan

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2024年第7期34-50,共17页Finance & Economics

基　　金：吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省财政可持续性综合评估与提升对策研究”(2021C35)的资助。

摘　　要：区域金融风险的滋生蔓延与金融体系的权力分配状况密不可分。本文首先从“央—地”之间的金融权力博弈阐析了地方政府“隐性”争权的内涵和历史沿革,然后以此为基础探究了隐性金融分权对区域金融风险的影响机理与溢出机制,最后构建空间计量模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:在经济发展水平临近、地理位置较为毗邻的地区之间,隐性金融分权与区域金融风险都呈现显著正向的空间自相关。隐性金融分权对本地区和临近地区的区域金融风险皆有显著的正向促进作用,且中部金融欠发达地区的隐性金融分权的风险效应更为强烈。隐性金融分权抬升区域金融风险的关系中存在显著的单门槛效应,当经济发展繁荣时,这种风险效应会减弱。由此,推进金融分权制度化建设、弱化地方政府过度干预金融动机对于防范化解区域金融风险具有重要意义.The breeding and spreading of regional financial risk in our country are inseparable from the power distribution of finan-cial system.In this paper,the connotation and historical evolution of the"implicit"power struggle between the central government and the local government were analyzed from the perspective of the financial power game between the central government and the lo-cal government.Based on this,the influence mechanism and spill-over mechanism of the implicit financial decentralization on re-gional financial risks were explored.Finally,a spatial measurement model was constructed based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2009 to 2019 for empirical test.The results show that there is a significant positive spatial autocorelation between implicit fi-nancial decentralization and regional financial risk in the regions with adjacent economic development level and relatively adjacent geographical location.Implicit financial decentralization has a significant positive promoting effect on regional financial risks in the region and its neighbors.The heterogeneity test shows that the risk effect of hidden financial decentralization is more intense in the central financial underdeveloped areas.Further discussion shows that there is a significant single threshold effect in the relationship between implicit financial decentralization and regional financial risks,and this risk effect will be weakened when the economy de-velops and prospers.Therefore,it is of great significance to promote the institutionalization of financial decentralization and weaken the motivation of local governments to over-intervene in finance for preventing and resolving regional financial risks.

关 键 词：隐性金融分权 区域金融风险 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F830.2[经济管理—金融学]