俄罗斯“转向东方”政策演变及前景展望  

Evolution and Prospects of Russia's "Turn to the East" Policy

作　　者：李自国 Li Ziguo

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院欧亚所

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2024年第4期52-69,共18页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

摘　　要：俄罗斯“转向东方”已演变为“向非西方转”。“转向东方”不仅是外交优先方向和经贸伙伴转向友好国家,还有国内发展向东偏移和经济发展及文明认同“去西方化”。“转向东方”的主要动力是融入西方彻底失败的失落,与西方关系的持续恶化,对“东升西降”世界发展大势的判断。俄罗斯国内思想变化对“转向东方”起到加持作用。2012年普京总统提出经济转向新亚洲概念,2014年开始有节奏战略性谋划与亚太地区的关系。2022年乌克兰危机升级,俄与西方斗而不破的传统关系被彻底打破,军事激烈对抗,经济加速脱钩,成为“转向东方”的加速器。“转向东方”由最初平衡与西方关系的工具变成突破西方外交和经济封锁的战略。“转向东方”在外交和经贸领域取得明显成效,亚洲迅速成为俄主要贸易伙伴。但“转向东方”无法一蹴而就,“俄罗斯国家文明”身份定位更需要时间积淀和自上而下传导。Russia's"Turn to the East"policy has already evolved into"Turn to the Non-West"policy."Turn to the East"is not only a diplomatic priority and a change of economic and trade partners to friendly countries,but also a shift of domestic development to the east and a"de-Westernization"of economic development and civilization identity.The main driving force of"Turn to the East"is the loss of the complete failure of integration into the West,the continuous deterioration of relations with the West,and the judgment of the general trend of world development,namely the rise of the East and the decline of the West.Changes in domestic thinking have also played a role in promoting"Turn to the East"policy.In 2012,President Putin proposed the concept of economic turn to New Asia,and in 2014,he began to strategically design relations with the Asia-Pacific region.In 2022,the Ukrainian crisis escalated,and Russia's traditional relationship with the West was completely broken.The fierce military confrontation and accelerated economic decoupling became the accelerator of the trend of"Turn to the East"."Turn to the East"has changed from a tool for balancing relations with the West to a strategy to break through the Western diplomatic and economic blockade."Turn to the East"has achieved significant results in the fields of diplomacy and trade,and Asia has quickly become Russia's main trading partner.However,"Turn to the East"cannot be achieved overnight.The identity of"Russian national civilization"requires time to accumulate and be transmitted from top to bottom.

关 键 词：俄罗斯外交 “转向东方” “向非西方转” 

分 类 号：D851.20[政治法律—政治学]