湖北省极端干湿事件时空变化规律及对水稻长势的影响  

Spatio-temporal Variations of Extreme Wet and Dry Eventsand Their Impacts on Rice Growth in Hubei Province

作　　者：霍军军[1] 高泰来 李佳迪 姜晓萱 HUO Jun-jun;GAO Tai-lai;LI Jia-di;JIANG Xiao-xuan(Water Resources Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第8期63-72,共10页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000202)。

摘　　要：气候变暖背景下,极端干旱、极端湿润事件频发对作物生长带来极大威胁,研究极端干湿事件(干旱/湿润)对农业生产的影响对于地区粮食安全和水资源管理有重要意义。以湖北省水稻种植区为研究区,利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)刻画水稻生长状况,基于1990—2020年32个气象站的气象资料和标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),分析极端干湿事件时空变化规律,基于2000—2020年NDVI分析水稻长势变化及其对极端干湿事件的响应。结果表明:1990—1999年极端干旱事件7次,2000—2009年4次,2010—2020年后2次,频次有所减少;极端湿润事件1990—1999年5次,2000—2009年2次,2010—2020年5次,频次无明显变化但面积有所增加;重要生长期(6—8月份)总NDVI呈现出显著增加趋势(p=0.012),增速为0.0078/a,生长情况变化呈良好态势;整体上极端干旱、极端湿润事件对水稻长势都有负效应,NDVI与SPEI相关系数最高分别达0.418、-0.358。为应对极端干湿事件,相关部门应加强水稻重要生长期内的气象监测,提高抗旱涝能力,确保农业高产稳产。Under global climate warming,frequent extreme dry and wet events threaten crop growth,highlighting the importance of studying their impact on agricultural production for regional food security and water resource management.In this study,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)was employed to assess rice growth in Hubei Province.Meteorological data spanning 1990 to 2020 from 32 stations and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)were employed to analyze spatial and temporal changes in extreme dry and wet events.Based on the NDVI from 2000 to 2020,the rice growth and its response to extreme dry and wet events were scrutinized.Correlation coefficients were computed to investigate the possible impacts on rice growth.Findings indicate a decline in extreme drought frequency,with 7 events occurring in 1990-1999,4 in 2000-2009,and only 2 in 2010-2020.Conversely,extreme wet events numbered 5 in 1990-1999,2 in 2000-2009,and 5 in 2010-2020,expanding in spatial extent without significant frequency change.Notably,the NDVI during the crucial growth period(June-August)exhibited a significant increase(p=0.012),growing at a rate of 0.0078 per year,indicating improved growth conditions.Extreme dry and wet events in general exerted negative impacts on rice growth,with the coefficient of correlation between NDVI and SPEI reaching 0.418 and-0.358,respectively.To mitigate the impact of extreme dry and wet events,enhancing meteorological monitoring during rice’s critical growth phases is recommended.This proactive measure aims to bolster resilience against droughts and floods,ensuring consistent and robust agricultural production.

关 键 词：极端干湿事件 SPEI 时空变化 NDVI 水稻生长 湖北省 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]