风云三号C星微波湿度计资料全天候同化对台风玛莉亚预报的影响  

Effects of Assimilating Microwave Humidity Sounders Data from FengYun-3C Satellite under All-Sky Conditions on the Forecasts of Typhoon Maria

作　　者：陈贞璇 陈科艺[1] 希爽[3,4] 冼智鹏 CHEN Zhenxuan;CHEN Keyi;XI Shuang;XIAN Zhipeng(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;Unit 31680 of PLA,Chengdu 610000;Center for Earth System Modelling and Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;National Satellite Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [2]中国人民解放军31680部队,成都610000 [3]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [4]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081 [5]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029 [6]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《大气科学》2024年第4期1457-1477,共21页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目41905031、42375151、41875039;国家重点研发计划项目SQ2017YFC150064。

摘　　要：随着风云三号系列卫星的成功发射,越来越多的卫星微波直接观测资料应用于数值天气预报的资料同化系统。并且由于卫星微波全天候同化技术可以充分利用晴天及云雨区微波观测资料,在增加同化使用的观测数据的基础上,有效提高数值天气预报准确率,该技术在卫星资料同化领域也颇受瞩目。本研究选取2018年7月的台风玛莉亚,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其同化系统WRFDA(WRF Data Assimilation)中三维变分方法,探讨风云三号C星微波湿度计观测资料的全天候同化技术在区域模式中的适用性,以及其在不同模式驱动场中的预报表现。通过对比仅同化晴空区域卫星资料的试验和全天候同化的试验结果发现,全天候条件下更多的云雨区域观测资料被有效利用,能够更好地模拟出台风玛莉亚核心区域的暖心和对称风速结构,有效改善湿度场的预报,对台风路径的预报误差平均降低了大约34%~62%,且这种正面影响均能在不同模式驱动场中得到体现。The successful launch of FengYun-3 has enabled more satellite observations of radiances to be directly assimilated.The introduction of satellite microwave all-sky assimilation technology enhances the utilization of microwave observation data under clear,cloudy,and precipitation conditions.This advancement not only increases assimilated radiances but also improves numerical weather prediction.Consequently,the all-sky approach has received considerable attention recently.In this study,typhoon Maria occurred in July 2018 is studied.In particularly,the all-sky assimilation of FY-3C/MWHS-2(FengYun-3C/MicroWave Humidity Sounders)data was performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)Model based on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique implemented in the WRF data assimilation system.The objective was to study the effect of assimilating FY-3C/MWHS-2 data under all-sky conditions and how different types of initial field data affect forecast accuracy in the regional numerical model.Results of clear-sky and all-sky assimilation experiments show that under all-sky conditions,more clouds and precipitation data are assimilated.Improvements were observed in the analysis of the vertical structures(such as the warm core and symmetric wind speed)and humidity fields of typhoon Maria.The average track-error reduction rates ranged from 34% to 62%.These positive effects can be demonstrated in all all-sky experiments utilizing different data types for initializing the WRF model.

关 键 词：风云三号C星 微波湿度计 全天候同化 台风预报 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]