放牧压力对中国北方农牧交错带生态系统健康的影响  

Impacts of grazing pressure on ecosystem health in the agro⁃pastoral intertwined areas of northern China

作　　者：王维奇 刘欣[1] 刘晨晖 陈延菲 高静然 王凯平 张云路[1] WANG Weiqi;LIU Xin;LIU Chenhui;CHEN Yanfei;GAO Jingran;WANG Kaiping;ZHANG Yunu(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第14期6288-6300,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：农业农村部规划设计研究院乡村振兴重点课题(xczxzdkt-20230814)。

摘　　要：中国北方农牧交错带生态系统敏感脆弱、不稳定,其健康状况受多种因素影响,其中以放牧为代表的人类经济活动影响显著。高强度放牧是造成草地退化的重要原因,草地退化又是影响草原生态系统健康的关键因素。利用归一化植被指数和牲畜量量化放牧压力,并选取合理的模型探究放牧对于中国北方农牧交错带生态健康的影响,确定合理的放牧强度和策略,以实现草畜平衡和区域可持续发展。基于“活力-组织力-弹性-生态服务”(VORS)模型,构建起包括自然、社会等多方面的指标体系,评估了2000—2015年北方农牧交错带的生态健康系统水平,并采用Moran′s I探讨放牧压力和生态系统健康指数的空间相关性,并从普通最小二乘法、地理加权回归模型、时间加权回归模型和时空地理加权回归模型选择最优回归模型,揭示放牧压力对于生态系统健康的影响机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年放牧强度格局高值区域主要为内蒙古草原地区,低值区域主要为陕西高原地区。(2)2000—2015年中国北方农牧交错带的生态系统健康指数呈现上升趋势,区域整体处于亚健康状态和一般健康状态。(3)全局双变量Moran′s I结果显示在2000—2015年呈现负相关影响关系,但影响力度在变小。(4)多种回归模型相比较,GTWR模型表现最优。2000—2015年,正向驱动空间集中在内蒙古、辽宁以及山西省区县;负向驱动空间集中在陕西省、甘肃等区域,同时影响强度持续增强。研究通过不同区县、不同的草原的反应状况,提出放牧政策的不同实施建议,致力于实现草原资源的可持续利用和生态系统的持续健康。Ecosystem health is a self⁃regulatory and restorative capacity of regional ecosystems to maintain ecological vitality,organization and resilience in the face of external disturbances.The transition zone between neighboring ecosystems,on the other hand,is more sensitive and fragile because of the interaction of different ecosystems and the impact of human activities,etc.,and its health status is more easily threatened.The agricultural and pastoral zone in northern China is the transition zone between the semi⁃humid zone and the semi⁃arid zone,and it is also an important agricultural zone for the transitional development of China′s agricultural and pastoral zones,and it is now facing the serious problem of grassland degradation.High⁃intensity grazing is an important cause of grassland degradation,which in turn is a key factor affecting the health of grassland ecosystems.Modeling and evaluating grazing pressure by combining normalized vegetation indices with livestock numbers,and thus studying the impacts on the ecological health of the region,in order to determine a reasonable grazing intensity to achieve grass⁃livestock balance and sustainable regional development.In this study,based on the Vitality⁃Organizational Strength⁃Resilience⁃Ecological Services(VORS)model,we constructed a system of indicators including natural and social aspects,assessed the level of ecological health systems in the northern agricultural and pastoral intertwined zone from 2000 to 2015,and used Moran′s I to explore the spatial correlation between grazing pressure and ecosystem health indices.We also chose the optimal regression model from the Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)method,geographically⁃weighted regression model,time⁃weighted regression model,and spatiotemporally⁃geographically⁃weighted regression model,to reveal the mechanism of the impacts of grazing pressure on the ecological systems′health.The results showed that:(1)the areas with high values of grazing intensity patterns from 2000—2015 were mainly i

关 键 词：生态系统健康 放牧压力 北方农牧交错带 时空演变 退耕还林(草) 放牧政策 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学] X171.1[农业科学—畜牧学]