多层次视角下颠覆性技术驱动的中国能源电力转型路径  

China's Energy and Power System Transition Pathways Driven by Disruptive Technologies:A Multilevel Perspective

作　　者：赵德福 袁家海[1,2] 张健 张浩楠 ZHAO Defu;YUAN Jiahai;ZHANG Jian;ZHANG Haonan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China;Department of Economic Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206 [2]新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市102206 [3]华北电力大学(保定)经济管理系,河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《电力建设》2024年第8期1-10,共10页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72173043);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(22JHQ096)。

摘　　要：碳中和目标下,作为中国碳排放主要来源的能源电力系统需要进行“脱碳革命”,其核心是通过颠覆性技术创新应用来重塑能源电力供需形态。运用多层次视角理论分析中国能源电力演变历程,剖析中国能源电力转型面临的问题与挑战,并结合颠覆性技术理论,构建多层次视角下颠覆性能源技术驱动的中国能源电力动态转型框架。根据转型框架,提出多层次视角下颠覆性能源技术驱动的中国能源电力转型路径。在转变路径与技术替代路径并存阶段(转型初期),培育具有颠覆式变革前景的能源技术。在重构路径阶段(转型中期),颠覆性技术进入成长扩散期,逐渐形成新的技术组合和管理体制,大范围重构现行高碳的能源社会技术体制。在解构和重置路径阶段(转型后期),颠覆性技术进入成熟稳定期,驱动能源结构发生根本性变革,建成清洁低碳、安全高效的新型能源体系。To achieve carbon neutrality,the energy and power system,the main source of China's carbon emissions,needs to undergo a“decarbonization revolution”.The core of this revolution involves reshaping the pattern of energy supply and demand by applying disruptive technological innovations.Using the theory of a multilevel perspective to analyze the evolution of China's energy and power systems,issues and challenges are presented.Combined with the theory of disruptive technology,this study constructed a framework for China's dynamic energy and power transition driven by disruptive energy technologies from a multilevel perspective.The proposed transition framework provides pathways for China's energy and power transitions driven by disruptive energy technologies from a multilevel perspective.Energy technologies with the potential for disruptive changes are cultivated in the transformation pathway and technological substitution(early stage of the transition).In the reconfiguration pathway phase(mid-period of the transition),disruptive technologies enter a period of growth and diffusion,gradually shaping new technology mixes and regimes,and the existing high-carbon energy sociotechnical regime is being reconfigured on a large scale.In the dealignment and realignment pathway(late stage of the transition),disruptive technologies enter a mature and stable phase,driving a fundamental change in the energy structure and achieving a new type of energy system that is clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient。

关 键 词：能源转型 多层次视角 颠覆性技术 技术驱动 转型路径 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]