岩溶区洪水预报模拟研究——以阳朔金宝河流域为例  

Flood Forecasting Simulation in Karst Areas——A Case Study of Jinbao River Basin in Yangshuo

作　　者：袁梦[1] 胡海英[1] 田甜 朱丹彤[1] 程香菊[1,2] YUAN Meng;HU Haiying;TIAN Tian;ZHU Dantong;CHENG Xiangju(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641 [2]华南理工大学亚热带建筑与城市科学国家重点实验室,广东广州510641

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第8期29-37,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52209088);四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金(SKHL2223)。

摘　　要：岩溶地区产汇流机制复杂,洪水预报的精度难以保证。为检验分布式水文模型(HEC-HMS)对岩溶地区山洪径流过程的模拟效果,以阳朔金宝河流域为例,利用水文气象及下垫面资料构建水文模型。基于修正的Morris筛选法分析模型的参数敏感性,并选取9场洪水进行模型参数率定和验证。研究结果表明:岩溶地区水文模型的主要敏感参数为径流曲线数(Curve Number,CN)、流域滞时、退水常数、峰值比和蓄量常数;参数对目标函数的敏感性随着雨强的增大而降低,且参数对峰现时间的敏感性受雨强影响较小;金宝河模拟场次洪水的径流深误差均小于20%、峰现时间误差均小于1 h,综合合格率为88.89%,平均Nash效率系数为0.85,达到乙级预报精度,遇龙河洪水预报同样也达到了乙级精度,表明所构建的模型对金宝河及其他岩溶山区小流域径流模拟具有良好的适用性;模型计算得出不同降雨重现期下易受灾点的预警时间和预警流量,可为该地区防洪预警提供依据。The production and sink mechanism in karst areas is complicated,and the accuracy of flood forecasting is difficult to ensure.In order to test the simulation effect of the distributed hydrological model(HEC-HMS)on the flash flood runoff process in karst areas,the hydrological model was constructed using hydrometeorological and subsurface data in the Jinbao River Basin of Yangshuo as an example.The parameter sensitivity of the model was analyzed based on the modified Morris screening method,and nine floods were selected for model parameter rate determination and validation.The results show that:the main sensitive parameters of the hydrological model in karst area are CN(curve number),lag time,recession constant,ratio to peak and storage constant.The sensitivity of the parameters to the objective function decreases with increasing rainfall intensity,and the sensitivity of the parameters to the peak time is less affected by rainfall intensity.The runoff depth errors of the simulated floods in Jinbao River are all less than 20%,the peak time errors are all less than 1 h,and the overall qualification rate is 88.89%,with an average Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.85,which achieves the accuracy of Class B forecasting,and the flood prediction of the Yulong River is also up to the Class B accuracy,which indicates that the constructed model has good applicability to the simulation of runoff in the Jinbao River and other small watersheds in the karst mountainous areas.The model calculates the warning time and flow rate of vulnerable points under different rainfall recurrence periods,which can provide a basis for flood prevention and early warning in this area.

关 键 词：岩溶地区 山洪预报 HEC-HMS模型 参数敏感性 金宝河流域 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]