考虑水资源管理影响的水源配置方案优选研究  

Optimal Selection of Water Resource Allocation Schemes Considering the Impact of Water Resource Management

作　　者：肖怡璇 郑炎辉 何艳虎 陈晓宏[4] 顾西辉[5] 涂晶晶 XIAO Yixuan;ZHENG Yanhui;HE Yanhu;CHEN Xiaohong;GU Xihui;TU Jingjing(Guangzhou Franzero Water Technology Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510663,China;School of Environment,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University ofTechnology,Guangzhou 510006,China;Center for Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]广州丰泽源水利科技有限公司,广东广州510663 [2]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055 [3]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广东广州510006 [4]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 [5]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第8期65-72,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(52209025)。

摘　　要：针对水源配置方案较少考虑水资源管理影响的问题,以东莞市为例,考虑水资源管理影响,构建水管理-安全-经济-环境全方位评价指标体系,并引入灰色关联系数,建立基于灰色关联-模糊综合评价耦合模型,实现水源配置方案优选。结果表明:水管理指标对方案优选结果存在影响,不考虑水资源管理影响时,水经济指标起主导作用,最优方案为3.65亿m^(3)/a的江库联网工程和0.95亿m^(3)/a的珠配工程,较优备选方案为2.92亿m^(3)/a的江库联网工程和1.68亿m^(3)/a的珠配工程;考虑水资源管理影响时,最优方案为3.65亿m^(3)/a的江库联网工程和0.95亿m^(3)/a的珠配工程,较优备选方案为0.37亿m^(3)/a的江库联网工程、3.3亿m^(3)/a的珠配工程和0.93亿m^(3)/a的已建水厂。因此,构建的指标体系与优选模型不仅考虑了当下的供水成本、供水保证率与废污水排放情况,还考虑了未来的管理难度及其带来的未知管理成本,为决策者提供更科学全面的决策依据。Considering the impact of water resources management,with Dongguan City as an example,a comprehensive evaluation system consisting of water management,safety,economy,and environment index was constructed.A gray correlation coefficient was also introduced to establish a coupling model based on gray correlation-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,to achieve the optimal selection of the water source allocation scheme.It was found that the water management index would affect the optimal selection result of the scheme.When the impact of water source management is not considered,the water economic index plays a leading role.The optimal scheme is 365 million m^(3)/year of river-reservoir interconnection project(RRIP)and 95 million m^(3)/year Pearl River Delta Water Resources Allocation project(PRDWRAP),while the alternative is 292 million m^(3)/year of RRIP and 168 million m^(3)/year of PRDWRAP.When the impact of water resources management is considered,the optimal scheme is 365 million m^(3)/year of RRIP and 95 million m^(3)/year of PRDWRAP,while the alternative is 37 million m^(3)/year of RRIP,330 million m^(3)/year of PRDWRAP and 93 million m^(3)/year of built water works.The index system and optimal model constructed in this study not only consider the current water supply cost,water supply guarantee rate and waste sewage discharge,but also the management difficulty in the future and the unknown following management cost.A more scientific and comprehensive decision-making basis for decision makers is thus provided.

关 键 词：水资源管理 水源配置方案优选 灰色关联 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]